Hurricane Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie, Gulf System

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking four tropical disturbances, including two that could affect Florida over the weekend or early next week.

Hurricane Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and intensity fluctuations possible tonight. Large waves from Kirk could bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to the U.S. East Coast through Sunday.

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The other system that could impact Florida is the disturbance that meteorologists have been watching all week: a low-pressure trough in the Caribbean Sea that has now moved into the Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week, depending on environmental conditions.

“Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over parts of Mexico over the next few days and over parts of the Florida Peninsula through the end of the weekend and into next week,” the Hurricane Center said. View the latest weather forecasts and radar data for all of Florida.

Also in the Atlantic basin – which consists of the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico – is Tropical Storm Leslie, which could develop into a hurricane, which is not expected tonight or Saturday and is not expected to affect Florida or the United States

At 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center issued a warning about a new tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa early next week.

The next named storms in the Atlantic hurricane season will be Milton and Nadine.

Is a hurricane coming to Florida?

A hurricane is not currently expected to hit Florida, but it is still not out of the realm of possibility.

According to the Hurricane Center, a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico early to mid-next week, depending on environmental conditions.

“While the exact path and intensity of the feature unfolding in the Gulf remains to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief on-air meteorologist.

“Although activity is not yet organized, almost all indicators suggest a structure will form in the southwestern Gulf, trending northeast and across the Florida Peninsula, from late this weekend through the middle of next week,” AccuWeather said.

“At this point, intensity will range from a widespread tropical rainstorm to perhaps the impact of a more compact, full-blown hurricane,” Rayno said.

Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 p.m. Friday, Oct. 4:

Hurricane Kirk: What you should know

Location: 960 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands; 1,645 miles west-southwest of the Azores
Maximum continuous wind: 130 miles per hour
Movement: Northwest at 12 miles per hour

➤ Hurricane Kirk Spaghetti Models

As of 5 p.m., Hurricane Kirk's center was located at latitude 23.7 north and longitude 49.4 west.

Kirk is moving northwest at about 12 miles per hour.

A turn to the north and northeast with higher forward speeds is expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now around 130 mph, with stronger gusts. Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Small fluctuations in intensity are possible today and tonight.

The weakening is expected to begin on Saturday and last until early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles.

Effects: Waves caused by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to hit the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, the East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on Monday to reach.

Tropical Storm Leslie: What you should know

Location: 695 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
Maximum continuous wind: 70 miles per hour
Movement: West-northwest at 7 mph

➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Storm Leslie

As of 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was near latitude 10.3 north and longitude 33.6 west.

Leslie is moving west-northwest at about 7 miles per hour and this movement is expected to continue through Saturday.

A turn to the northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected from Sunday to Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to nearly 70 mph with stronger gusts.

Further strengthening is forecast and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center.

Effects: No impact on the country is expected.

What else is there and how likely is it to intensify?

Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure trough over the western Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms.

This system is expected to develop into a widespread low pressure area over the southwest or south-central Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and further subsequent development is possible as the low slowly moves east or northeast.

➤ Tropical threat in the Gulf of Mexico could hit Florida with 3 to 30 inches of rain

A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week if the low remains separated from a frontal boundary that is expected to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Effects: Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over parts of Mexico over the next few days and over parts of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend and into next week.

Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Educational opportunity over 7 days: medium, 50 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday.

Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west or west-northwest across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Chance of occurrence over 7 days: low, 20 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be affected?

Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain in the central Atlantic, but the storm's waves are expected to reach the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday, bringing life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents.

According to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, residents along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, should watch as the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

➤ Forecasting excessive rainfall

For central and southern Florida, heavy rains of up to 3 inches are likely in some areas between Sunday and Tuesday, Truchelut said.

AccuWeather said there could be several inches to a foot or more of rain in some locations, with most of the precipitation likely falling from Interstate 4 south to the Keys. Some locations could see up to 30 inches of rain.

Tropical Storm Leslie and the tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa next week are still too far from the U.S. to say whether there will be impacts in Florida or the U.S., but none are currently expected .

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared. This advice is particularly important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

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When is hurricane season over?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that passed near your city

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's next?

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