Hurricane forecasters are tracking the rain system as it heads toward Florida

A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico promises to bring heavy, potentially flooding rain to Florida starting Sunday and lasting well into next week.

Meteorologists still aren't sure whether the system will develop into a named tropical storm or possibly even a low-level hurricane. But regardless of tropical (or subtropical) development, locally heavy rainfall is expected over parts of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend into next week, the National Hurricane Center said.

“While the exact path and intensity of the feature unfolding in the Gulf remains to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief on-air meteorologist. “At this point, intensity will range from a widespread tropical rainstorm to perhaps the impact of a more compact, full-blown hurricane.”

Forecasters are currently particularly concerned about the rain.

AccuWeather said there could be several inches to a foot or more of rain in some locations, with most of the precipitation likely falling from Interstate 4 south to the Keys. Some isolated locations could see up to 30 inches of rain, AccuWeather predicts. According to the National Weather Service, many locations are expected to receive up to 10 to 15 inches (25 to 38 centimeters) of rain.

According to the National Weather Service's forecast office in Miami, given these rain-related threat situations, “it is important to emphasize that a less organized system (in terms of central pressure or maximum winds) does not necessarily entail lower impacts,” such as it says sloppier systems can still have significant impacts.

According to AccuWeather, a hurricane is possible

“Should development occur in the southwestern Gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is time and potential for the phenomenon to develop into a tropical storm and hurricane,” said Alex DaSilva of AccuWeather.

The hurricane center is less optimistic about the storm, saying only that “a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form early to mid-next week,” the center said in a forecast Friday morning.

Other forecasters aren't expecting a hurricane either: According to meteorologist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami, “several models now show a weak low-pressure center over south or central Florida Tuesday through Wednesday, possibly a weak tropical storm.”

If it's a named storm, the next name on the list is Milton.

Rain, not wind, is the main danger

McNoldy said the general consensus is that the system will begin drifting east toward the Florida Peninsula, with rain beginning Sunday and continuing for days. “It could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm by then, but wind will not be the main threat; there will be rain,” he said.

Heavy rains are expected across central and southern Florida between Sunday and Tuesday, meteorologist Ryan Truchelut said.

Kirk and Leslie continue filming in the Atlantic

Out in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie continue to swirl far from land. Large waves from Kirk could bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, the hurricane center said.

Although weakening is forecast by early next week, Kirk or its remnants are likely a long-lived system that could generally affect much of western Europe by the middle of next week, AccuWeather said.

Tropical Storm Leslie is expected to reach hurricane strength by Saturday but does not pose a threat to land areas as of Friday morning, the hurricane center said.

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

Contributor: Cheryl McCloud, USA Today Network-Florida

According to AccuWeather, a hurricane is possible

Rain, not wind, is the main danger

Kirk and Leslie continue filming in the Atlantic

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