There are some players who are difficult to predict each year when preparing the top 50 free agents. Often these are players whose reputation exceeds their statistical results, especially in their running year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.

We ended up with a five-year forecast of $125 million, which put it seventh in the class. This appears to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning potential are in the range of $140 million to $170 million.* These are more in line with Polar Bear's reputation as a star and put him in the category Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson Bucket. Freeman received a $162 million deferred contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's contract extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168 million over eight seasons.

Alonso is likely to expect similar pay. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Alonso turned down a seven-year, $158 million offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six years as a free agent. Alonso collected $20.5 million for his final year of arbitration, so the extension proposal can be considered $137.5 million over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his former representatives felt he could do better. (He has since discontinued the Boras Corporation.) To do this, he will have to buck some market trends.

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