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How do previous poll results in Iowa compare to the election results in Iowa?

How do previous poll results in Iowa compare to the election results in Iowa?
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Voter preference polls are not designed to predict victories. They are snapshots that help news outlets and the general public better understand what likely voters are thinking and what issues are important to them at this moment.

But many look at polls conducted just before an election to get a better sense of how Election Day might go.

In Iowa, the Des Moines Register has conducted the Iowa Poll since 1943, when pollsters first fanned out across the state to survey Iowans on their doorsteps. Since 1987, J. Ann Selzer has directed the Iowa Survey, first as a Register employee and since 1997 on a contract basis with her firm Selzer & Co.

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When an Iowa poll is released, readers often wonder how close past polls have been to the final election results. Here's a look at Iowa polls leading up to U.S. presidential elections over the past 20 years.

2020: The latest Iowa poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden

The final 2020 Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll was conducted October 26-29, 2020, just days before the November 3, 2020 election. The results showed then-President Donald Trump leading in the state: 48% versus Joe Biden’s 41%.

The 7-point lead was a shift from a September 2020 Iowa poll that showed the state's race was tied.

It closely matched the final results, with Trump winning Iowa by 8 points (53% to 45%).

2016: The latest Iowa poll shows Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton

After Iowa voted for President Barack Obama in back-to-back elections, 2016 saw numerous campaigns by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Trump with a 7-point lead over Clinton (46% to 39%). The survey was conducted November 1-4, 2016, prior to the November 8, 2016 election.

It took until 1:30 a.m. the next day for the Associated Press to call the race for Trump. Trump finished with a 9.4-point lead over Clinton (51.1% to 41.7%).

More: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your top questions.

2012: In the last poll in Iowa, Barack Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney

President Barack Obama met his challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

In the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, Obama had a 5-point lead over Romney (47% to 42%).

On election night, Obama was ahead by 6 points (52% to 46%).

2008: Barack Obama has a significant lead over John McCain in the latest poll in Iowa

Iowa helped launch Barack Obama as a presidential candidate when he won the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

Before Election Day, the latest Iowa poll looked as if Obama would easily carry the state ahead of challenger John McCain. The poll showed a 17-point lead (54% to 37%).

When polls closed, Obama won the state by a narrower margin: 10 points. He received 54% of the vote, while McCain received 44%.

2004: John Kerry is ahead of President George W. Bush

Iowa was considered a battleground state in 2004 after President George W. Bush was plagued by low job approval ratings. Iowa did not vote for Bush in 2000, electing former Vice President Al Gore instead.

The latest Iowa poll showed U.S. Sen. John Kerry as the Democratic challenger by a 5-point margin (48% to 43%).

On election night, Bush eked out a narrow victory, receiving 49.9% of the vote, compared to 49.2% for Kerry. Bush was the first Republican to win the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Brian Smith is the Register's audience growth strategist. Reach him at [email protected] or 515-284-8214.

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