Here's who's leading the Trump-Harris 2024 presidential race in Nevada

Topline

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are essentially tied in the latest poll of likely voters in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where a decline in support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris' chances of winning the state in November .

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally … (+) October 24th in Las Vegas.

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Important facts

According to a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday, Trump is up 48-47% in Nevada (margin of error 4.6 points).

According to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday, Harris leads likely voters 48.8% to 48.3% (margin of error 5 points) — effectively a tie race, since the poll's margin of error is five points.

Meanwhile, in an AARP poll of likely voters released Oct. 22, Harris trails Trump by one point, 47% to 46% (margin of error 4).

According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump has an average lead of 0.2 points in Nevada, while an Emerson poll released October 10 showed Harris ahead by one point, 48% to 47% (margin of error 3.2), and a Wall Street Journal poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large lead of five points.

Nevada — the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among key demographics.

Biden led Trump 61% to 35% among Latino voters in Nevada in 2020, according to CNN polls, while Harris led Trump 56% to 40% among Latino voters in Nevada in October, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. ahead of Trump.

According to the poll, Harris has particular problems with Latino men. According to the poll, 53% of Latino male voters ages 18 to 34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35 to 49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris.

According to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, immigration and inflation top the list of concerns for Latino voters in Nevada. 37% cited inflation as their top concern and 17% cited immigration.

Big number

56%. That's the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016 compared to 49% who identified with the Democratic Party in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

tangent

Trump and Harris are tied in Nevada, according to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, while Trump has a slight polling advantage in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona and Harris leads by narrow margins in Wisconsin and Michigan. She has a razor-thin lead in national polls.

Important background

The Harris campaign is making a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada with a “Hombres con Harris” tour with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump -ally Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.