Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively neck-and-neck. The final polls ahead of Sunday and Monday's elections show the candidates splitting the seven swing states – and crucial Pennsylvania is virtually tied.

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

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Important facts

Nevada: This is also a misconception – Trump is up 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but the Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading 49-46% and YouGov Harris leading 48-47% Plus has while Emerson has a draw at 48%.

Georgia: It's a razor-thin Trump lead – he's ahead by 0.7 percentage points on the FiveThirtyEight average and is 50-49% in the Emerson poll, 50-48% in the Morning Consult poll, and 50-48% in the YouGov poll -Poll ahead 48-46% poll, but the Times/Siena poll has Harris ahead 48-47%.

north Carolina: Another narrow Trump advantage – he leads by 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight's data and is ahead 49-48% according to Emerson, 49-47% according to Morning Consult and 48-47% according to YouGov, although Harris is ahead with 48%. -46% in the Times/Siena poll.

Michigan: There's a margin of error for Harris – she leads by one point in the FiveThirtyEight data, 50-48% in the Emerson poll, 49-48% in the Morning Consult poll and 47-45% according to YouGov, but they're lying in the New York Times/Siena poll at 47%.

Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage – she's up 1.1 points on FiveThirtyEight, leading Trump 48-45% according to YouGov and 49-47% according to Times/Siena, but she's tied for 49th in Emerson's poll %. and Morning Consult has a lead of about one point over Trump.

Arizona: It's the largest lead of any swing state and still extremely close – Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and leads 49%-45% according to the Times/Siena, 50%-48 according to Emerson % and according to Times/Siena at 48%-47%. However, Morning Consult found a tie at 48%, according to YouGov.

Big number

1.1 points. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Who is the favorite to win the election?

It is extremely close. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52% chance of winning, while statistician Nate Silver puts his chances at 50.4%. If the above polling averages are exactly right in all seven swing states, Harris will clinch a narrow electoral victory – but the polls could be slightly off, and even a small error in one direction or the other could result in a Trump or Harris landslide.

Is Iowa a swing state?

Probably not — but a new poll on Saturday has some people raising eyebrows. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, a shocking result given Selzer's stellar reputation and Iowa's status as a red state. Most other polls in Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It's not clear whether the poll's results – which suggested women, independents and older voters voted significantly against Trump – will be replicated in other swing states such as neighboring Wisconsin.

tangent

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.