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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election


Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with new polls released Tuesday showing a one-point race in Michigan, Arizona and Nevada, all within the margins of error.

Important facts

Nevada: Trump is ahead in Nevada 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.6 points), according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday, while Harris is ahead 48.8% to 48.3% in a Bloomberg poll Wednesday ( Margin of error 5). But Trump is ahead 47% to 46% (margin of error 4) in an AARP poll released Oct. 22, and he is ahead 48% (margin of error 4.8) in a Washington Post-Schar poll released Oct. 21. . Harris is ahead by 0.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Harris leads 48% to 47% in the CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.4), Trump leads 50% to 49% in a Marist poll released Thursday (margin of error 3.7) and Trump is ahead by three points – 49% to 46% – in the Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), but Bloomberg reports Harris effectively leading 49.1% to 48.8%, within the three-point margin of error. Trump is up 1.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Michigan: In an Emerson poll released Tuesday, Trump leads Harris 49% to 48% (margin of error 3 points), while Harris represents the largest lead of any state surveyed by Bloomberg, 49.6% to 46.5%, but still within There is a margin of error within the four-point limit – and it is similar to Harris' 49-46% lead in the Quinnipiac poll (2.9 margin of error) released on October 23rd. Harris is 0.7 points higher in the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Michigan.

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% in the Marist poll (margin of error 3.9), and Trump leads 49.9% to 48.4% in the Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3) and 47% to 43% in one The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters dropping out on Tuesday (margin of error 3.1), while the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.5) showed Harris ahead 51% to 47%. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.5 points.

North Carolina: Trump is up 50% to 48% in the Marist poll – within the margin of error of 3.6 points – and he is up 50% to 48% in an Emerson College poll released Thursday (also within the margin of error of 3.1 points). Bloomberg's poll showed him leading 49.6% to 48.5% (margin of error 4), and the Washington Post-Schar poll showed him leading 50% to 47% (margin of error 3.9). The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a lead of 1.2 points.

Wisconsin: The state is almost as close as it gets, with Trump leading 49% to 48% (margin of error 3.4) in the Emerson poll and 48.3% to 48% (margin of error 4) in the Bloomberg poll ) and the two candidates are at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll Wednesday (margin of error 2.9), while Harris has a lead of 50% to 47% in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.6 ). Harris is up 0.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Pennsylvania: Trump leads 49% to 48% (margin of error 3.4) in the Emerson poll, while Bloomberg found Harris leading 50% to 48.2% (margin of error 3), and she had one in the Washington Post Lead of 49% to 47%. Schar survey (error rate 4.6). Still, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump is 0.3 points ahead of Harris.

Big number

0.4. That's how many points Trump leads Harris in the RealClearPolitics national polling average, while the FiveThirtyEight average shows Harris ahead by 1.5 points.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of the seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

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