Topline

Former President Donald Trump won the first two so-called swing states – North Carolina and Georgia – and is leading in several other states as Election Day results suggest he has multiple paths to victory.

Important facts

Important background

Trump announced his most recent presidential campaign nearly two years ago when Republican loyalty to the former president appeared to be on shaky ground. He declared his third candidacy following unexpected GOP defeats by his preferred candidates in the November 2022 midterm elections, for which many in the party blamed Trump. At the time, some party leaders were still confused – if not publicly expressed – about their concerns about Trump's role in the Capitol riots on January 6, 2021. Trump sparked further backlash among Republicans when he announced his campaign just weeks after announcing his campaign dined with white supremacist Nick Fuentes and controversial rapper Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago – adding to criticism that made it seem like Trump's influence over the party might be waning. But his criminal charges the following year — first in his hush-money trial in Manhattan in March 2023, followed by his federal election interference and classified documents cases, and his indictment in Fulton County, Georgia, against his efforts to overturn the state's election — unified the party behind Trump as he claimed the cases amounted to election interference designed to prevent him from retaking the White House in 2020. Trump surged ahead in the polls after President Joe Biden's disastrous performance in the June debate, but briefly trailed Harris after she won the White House race before the gap narrowed nationally and in the seven swing states. Trump named Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, as his running mate in July.

tangent

Trump's second campaign is in many ways a more aggressive version of his first campaign, with heightened anti-immigration rhetoric, retaliation against his political enemies and a continuation of his false claims that he is the real winner of the 2020 election. He has promised, if elected, a implement even stricter border policies, including mass arrests and deportations of undocumented migrants. He has unveiled plans to increase tariffs by 10% overall and 60% on imports from China. Most experts warn that the proposals could raise prices for consumers because the cost of the tariffs would likely be borne by a combination of U.S. companies that import goods, customers that buy them, and foreign companies that export them.

Main critic

Harris has focused much of her campaign on attacking Trump over his role on Jan. 6 and his inflammatory rhetoric toward his political opponents. Last week in Washington, in what she called her “closing argument,” she warned that Trump was “unstable, obsessed with revenge.” “consumed by resentment and seeking unchecked power.” Her campaign also sought to interpret Trump's increasing penchant for long-winded rants and wild onstage behavior as a sign that he is exhausted and his mental capacity has declined, pointing out to the 30 minutes that Trump danced to music on stage during a rally in Pennsylvania last month and his refusal to release his medical records.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris is up by a wafer-thin 1 point in the latest Forbes/HarrisX poll (Forbes)

2024 Election Swing State Polls: Near Tie on Blue Wall as Trump, Harris Battle for Pennsylvania (Latest Update) (Forbes)

Can Trump and Harris tie in tomorrow's election? It's Possible – Here's What Would Happen (Forbes)

'Blue Mirage' and 'Red Mirage' Explained: Why Counting Tomorrow's First Swing State Votes Could Be Misleading (Forbes)

Here we find out the results of the Trump-Harris election in the must-win swing states (Forbes)