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Grayson Rodriguez will not return in 2024


Grayson Rodriguez will not return in 2024

The Orioles are closing Grayson Rodriguez for the season, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (X-Link via Jake Rill of MLB.com). Although Rodriguez has not suffered any setbacks, the team believes he does not have enough time to return from the injured list.

The loss of the right-hander is a devastating blow to the Orioles' rotation with the postseason set to begin next week. It would take a miracle for the Orioles to beat the Yankees for the AL East crown (and the Wild Card Series bye that comes with it) at that point, and if that doesn't happen, the club will have to decide whether to turn to the right-hander Dean Kremer or journeyman Albert Suárez to complete the club's rotation for the series behind Corbin Burnes And Zach EflinBoth of them will likely play in the ALDS and beyond if they manage to advance further.

Both pitchers have been solid starters in the middle and end of the rotation for the Orioles this year, but are not the type of reliable pitchers teams want to rely on in a playoff series. Kremer has started 24 times for Baltimore this year and has posted slightly below-average results, with a 4.10 ERA (ERA+92) and a 4.32 FIP in 129 2/3 innings, while Suarez has a 3.74 ERA (ERA+100) and a 4.12 FIP in 127 2/3 innings split between the bullpen and rotation. Of the two, Kremer may be the more reliable choice, given his stronger results of late (since early August he's posted a 3.95 ERA and 3.55 FIP), which compare favorably to Suarez's ugly 7.23 ERA in four September starts in which he allowed a whopping seven home runs.

Baltimore's front office attempted to bolster the rotation in response to injuries to the pitching staff throughout the year leading up to the trade deadline, and while adding Eflin to the roster proved invaluable in the home stretch, the same cannot be said about the decision to Trevor Rogers to their rotation mix. The Orioles traded respected young players Connor Norby And Kyle Stowers in exchange for Rogers' services in July, but the left-hander made four disastrous starts for the club (7.11 ERA, 5.01 FIP) before being sent to the minor leagues, where he continued to struggle down the stretch.

Regardless of how Kremer, Suarez and other rotation options like Rogers and Cade Povich (5.59 ERA in 15 starts) will be used by Hyde during the postseason, none of those options seem as reliable as Rodriguez. In 116 2/3 innings before being sidelined by a lat injury in August, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a stronger 3.66 FIP in 20 starts and struck out a solid 26.5% of opponents in his second season as a member of the Orioles rotation this year. That strikeout rate is good enough for 23rd in the major leagues among starters with at least 100 innings this year, in line with likely playoff starters for other clubs like Tanner Bibee the guardian and Carlos Rodon the Yankees.

Fortunately, Hyde's comments offer little cause for concern about whether Rodriguez will return healthy and effective next season. While Burnes is set to become a free agent in November, Rodriguez is likely to be the club's best internal option next year, along with Eflin, with Ass Kyle Bradish and right Tyler Wells both are potentially in the running to return in the second half of 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery in June. Even though Rodriguez will likely be healthy again next season, bolstering rotation numbers is a priority for the Orioles this winter as they look to bolster their vaunted offensive core. That could mean seeking a reunion with Burnes or perhaps signing a second-tier arm expected to be available this winter, such as Nathan Eovaldi or Sean Manaea.

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