Tropical storm warnings could be issued in the Florida Keys as early as Monday as Tropical Depression 18 strengthens in the Caribbean Sea.

On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) released an updated forecast curve showing the storm passing Jamaica on Tuesday morning, moving over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening and moving over northwestern Cuba by Wednesday. The storm is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys as a hurricane on Wednesday night.

“Those interested in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches may be required for portions of these areas later today,” the NHC said in its latest update.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for waters off the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and a small boat warning is in effect around the Florida Keys. The tropical storm warning warned of rain, isolated thunderstorms and large waves.

The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Key West also posted several reports about the impending storm on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday morning. The biggest concerns from the storm are coastal flooding, with water up to a foot higher than high tide, and some squalls, said NWS forecaster Luis Ingram Newsweek.

Ingram added that rainfall amounts are still uncertain and forecasts are expected to be released Monday afternoon.

There is also a chance of tropical storm-force winds between 39 and 73 mph, particularly in the Lower Keys. The wind will pick up Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.

“Multiple thunderstorm squalls with local wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the highest probability over the lower Florida Keys,” the NWS Key West office said. “Heavy rainfall may occur locally as a result of passing squalls, with some road flooding and poor drainage possible particularly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday night.”

It is unusual for a tropical storm or hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast states in November due to cooling Gulf waters and strong wind shear that tends to tear storms apart before they can make landfall. However, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines previously shared this Newsweek that Gulf waters are warmer than normal, although the storm could be dissipated by wind shear before it reaches the United States

If the system remained organized until it arrived in Louisiana, it would likely make landfall Saturday morning.

“The system is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties surrounding long-term forecast direction and intensity, it is still too early to determine what, if any, impacts may occur,” the latest NHC update said.