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Fantasy Football Panic Meter: How worried is the Jets' stars?


Fantasy Football Panic Meter: How worried is the Jets' stars?

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have very little time to observe and analyze a player's performance. But fear not—Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be—if at all.

Wilson has fewer catches, yards, touchdowns and yards per route run through four weeks this season than he did last season, despite now being thrown a four-time MVP winner. He ranks 77th in yards per target, 62nd in catchable targets rate and third worst in ESPN's reception score. Rodgers' passer rating is 27 points higher this season when throwing to anyone other than Wilson.

Wilson was a top 12 fantasy WR once in his last 26 games (when he was WR10)! The Raiders have three wide receivers averaging more fantasy points. Rodgers is already hampered by a swollen knee in a still-shaky offensive system, and crucially, Wilson's extremely difficult schedule will continue next month.

Wilson is a great receiver who just turned 24 and ranks 11th in expected fantasy points. He should also secure more throws over the back shoulder as the chemistry between him and Rodgers builds, so some regression is coming. But there is real panic for a WR with a top-12 ADP, and Wilson's value would drop further if New York traded for Davante Adams.

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Hall had a career-low four rushing yards and was outpaced by Braelon Allen during New York's loss to Denver. Hall totaled 18 yards on 15 opportunities while Allen had 36 on nine. Hall was stuffed on consecutive goal-line runs (Allen replaced him on the following two passing plays), and Robert Saleh talked about possibly using Allen there more after the game.

Hall was targeted for a potential 30-yard TD in the end zone, but he also appeared to miss one or more key blocks, leading to a late sack. Aaron Rodgers was noticeably frustrated with him at times on Sunday, which was undoubtedly a bad day for Hall.

Field conditions were better for the powerback on Sunday, and that's hardly Hall's fault; The Jets had the worst offensive line in the league before contact and were dominated by a Denver defense that has allowed just 22 points combined in the last three games (and the fewest yards per play this year!). Hall has gained 166 of 174 rushing yards after contact this season.

Allen doesn't go away, but Hall is the superior receiver. Despite Allen's rise, Hall leads all RBs in receptions and is on pace to finish with 102 catches this season. Allen struggled with fewer stacked boxes and did only slightly better than expected in the YPC. Only Christian McCaffrey surpassed Hall in fantasy after he began seeing full snaps in Week 5 last season while playing for an offense that ranked 31st in yards per game. When healthy, Hall remains a star running back in his prime.

The schedule isn't likely to improve in the short term, and given the change in usage (particularly when it occurs at the goal line), some concern is warranted. But Hall should still be treated as a middle RB1 and continue to get 20 chances per game. The Jets offer a number of quality extras to their running backs. Don't sell here at a low price.

Pitts' goals have fallen every season of his career, and now he's losing them to Charlie Woerner. Pitts ranks last in the ESPN competition and ranks fourth on his own team in first-read target rating. I'm starting to think it might not live up to the hype. Pitts' panic level is higher than Snoop Dogg's.

Robinson finished last week with a season-low 61% snap percentage and just one more chances (11) than Tyler Allgeier. Robinson had less than half as many rushing yards. Raheem Morris declared it a “hot hand” situation and Robinson had a long touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. Comparing their season's YPC (6.1 vs. 4.1) isn't fair to Robinson, who has far more stacks of boxes to contend with.

Robinson had an 81% snap rate through three weeks, so injuries could also have been a factor in the Week 4 workload. While Sunday's game looks like an aberration, the Falcons play on Thursday this week, so it's possible Robinson sees reduced action again.

Robinson sits between Devin Singletary and Chuba Hubbard in expected and actual RB fantasy points. He has posted a weekly top-five RB ranking once during his career. That's concerning for someone who was taken in the top five overall picks.

Richardson's rollercoaster season continued last week, as he got off to a great start on Sunday (including a CPOE of +12.2 in the 90th percentile) before a hip injury forced him to watch Joe Flacco lead the Colts to victory. Richardson appears to have avoided a serious injury and will start this week if he is healthy. Still, a hip injury could limit running, and it's admittedly concerning that Flacco is a threat when Richardson has the highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays.

However, Richardson has averaged the same number of yards per pass attempt (8.5) as Jayden Daniels despite having a 31.5% lower completion rate. How is that even possible? He was the best long-distance thrower in the league, but was among the worst everywhere, and we hope the latter declines even more in the future. Richardson was on the verge of a tumultuous touchdown (once again) on Sunday, and his schedule is now easing after enduring the league's toughest start. Especially given the quarterback situation surrounding the NFL, fantasy managers should remain patient with Richardson (though those with Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs would disagree).

Mahomes has already failed to reach 30 pass attempts in three games this year after only doing so once all of last season. In his last nine regular season games, he had 12 TD passes with 10 interceptions, reaching 300 yards just once. He has a career-high nine straight games with a giveaway, has the most interceptable passes this season and ranks 22nd in adjusted yards per attempt. Mahomes also ranks last with a full half-yard in air yards per attempt, and he has a worse-than-expected completion percentage than Caleb Williams.

Now he's lost Rashee Rice, who was by far Mahomes' favorite target. Mahomes had gone 30 games without a 50-yard TD pass before hitting Xavier Worthy deep last week, but the rookie remains raw and has the third-worst win percentage. Kansas City's passing rate has fallen over the last two games, and Mahomes hasn't finished better than QB14 since Week 12 of last season (nine games).

Mahomes remains the current favorite to win MVP this season and will do it for the Chiefs (who could trade for a WR), but he was selected as the QB1 in the high-stakes NFFC Primetime leagues. He shouldn't be treated as a top-10 fantasy QB right now.

Moore runs a lot of routes and sees a significant number of targets, but his fantasy value has been destroyed by Caleb Williams and a Chicago offensive lineman who averages the fewest yards per play in the league. Shane Waldron is a big problem, and Williams' miss rate on throws beyond 10 yards is the worst in the league (barring Bryce Young on the bench and a start from Tyler Huntley). Williams was even worse on throws over 15 yards downfield, and Moore was noticeably sulking on the sideline.

Williams should improve in his rookie season, but Moore has 140 yards in four games if you take away his Hail Mary catch, and that comes with an extremely favorable schedule. Keenan Allen expects to be more involved now that he's healthier, and Rome Odunze has proven his ability to achieve goals. Moore was a top 40 prospect in Yahoo leagues, so panic is high.

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