PHILADELPHIA – Aggressiveness has served the Eagles organization well, dating back to the Doug Pederson era.

Philadelphia tried to eliminate Pederson and his Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. However, what most see as over-the-top aggression kept an overmatched Jags team in the game and actually gave Jacksonville an opportunity to snag an improbable victory at Lincoln Financial Field until Nakobe Dean closed the door with a game-winning end zone interception at 1:38 left over.

The first question Nick Sirianni was asked after the game was about the meat he left on the bone due to failed fourth-down conversions and forgoing PATs for failed two-point conversions.

It was classic post-game second guessing based on outcome bias.

“We’ve achieved pretty good results with that in the past,” said the head coach.

Critics who miss this point usually fail to understand that good decisions do not guarantee positive outcomes and vice versa.

“You always think about everything. You think about who you have. You think about your previous experiences with it. You always look at the analysis,” Sirianni said. “We were pretty good with it.

“Today (Jacksonville) did a good job. And I'll look at everything. Right now I’m always doing what I think is best for the football team.”

Decisions in the NFL are always based on predictive models, be it analytical or the more feelings-based experiential approach.

On Sunday, the Eagles converted 18 of 20 tush pushes, a 90% conversion rate that even surpassed the team's success with future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce.

The smart move was to take advantage of this, especially on conversion attempts when the Jags were giving up free yards.

“It didn’t work today. That’s how it works,” Sirianni said. “This is the hat I have to wear.”

No one researches previous playbooks when fourth-down conversions or two-point attempts are successful, even if they understand the counterintuitive idea that those weren't necessarily good decisions based on that success.

And Sirianni said the quiet part out loud.

“If we get a fourth down and convert a fourth down, nothing is actually said. I understand there will be questions if we don’t do that,” Sirianni said.

Part of our job is to understand that outcome bias always takes precedence over logic and reasoning.

“Again, I have to have the guts to actually do that at the end and say, 'Am I doing everything I can do to help us win the game?'” Sirianni asked rhetorically. “In those moments I thought it was me, but I’ll go back and watch them again.”

Ironically, the litmus test can only come after a successful game. If you tell yourself, “Yes, that worked, but if you keep doing the same thing it probably won't be anything positive,” that's probably a bad decision.

Failure mars everything.

Arguing that a failed fourth-down conversion due to a late throw is a bad decision, or ignoring a 90% success rate on tush pushes in hindsight, is as simple as it is predictable.

The whole idea is to make good decisions to increase the chances of positive outcomes, and 18 out of 20 is the definition of taking advantage of the opportunities.

It didn't work on Sunday. The good news is that this wasn't the case and the Eagles were still able to escape with a win.

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