Could Nebraska's Senate seat be swapped for an independent?

Of all the hotly contested U.S. Senate races this year, Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Nebraska, was expected to win reelection by a wide margin, with Trump winning in 2016 and 2020 with about 58% of the vote. But that was before Dan Osborn, a former union leader, decided to run for office as an independent.

In a state where Republican victories are almost always a given, Nebraska is now among the most important Senate races to watch in the Nov. 5 election, as its outcome could determine which party wins the upper chamber of Congress controlled.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll puts Osborn trailing Fischer by just two percentage points, 46% to 48%, with 5% of likely voters in Nebraska either undecided or refusing to answer. Other political organizations, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, updated the contest to “lean” toward “solid” Republicans.

Osborn, a veteran of the U.S. Navy and Nebraska Army National Guard, has rejected endorsements from the state Democratic Party. As an independent candidate, his platform weaves together issues from both sides of the political spectrum: he supports the Second Amendment, advocates for protecting reproductive rights and wants to make it easier for unions to organize.

This race marks the Cornhusker native's first time getting involved in politics, which he calls one of his greatest strengths.

“It is a story as old as time; He who can divide can conquer. Right now I feel like we're pretty divided,” Osborn recently told a crowd gathered at his campaign office in Lincoln for an event highlighting his support among conservative Nebraskans.

“You can imagine the consequences if Nebraska elects an independent candidate; The whole country will say, 'Holy crap.' See what Nebraska did?' It will show people across the country that you don’t have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire to run for office.”

In an election with historic political division, Osborn markets himself as a candidate loyal to neither party and frequently expresses his displeasure with partisan gridlock and ineffectiveness on Capitol Hill.

One question keeping both parties on their toes is whether Osborn will caucus with either party in the Senate. When asked about it, Osborn points to former Sen. George Norris, I-Nebraska, who was the last independent to represent the state in 1942. Norris did not align with any party and brought his nonpartisan nature with him to Nebraska, where he helped found the state's unicameral legislature.

“We pride ourselves on being different from other people, but also independent,” said Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

From the center outwards

What was a relatively unnoticed operation just a few months ago has put Fischer's campaign in full force to energize her Republican base, with millions in money from national Republicans and an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in her pocket.

Republicans are pouring millions into the race for the House seat, including a recent $3 million donation from a super political action committee allied with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky. The cash infusion into her campaign has enabled a flood of expensive television ads portraying Osborn as a Democrat in disguise.

“My opponent supports amnesty and Social Security for illegal immigrants and has said he loves Bernie Sanders — he is simply too far left for our state,” Fischer said in a statement to USA TODAY.

“Nebraskans support me because I have delivered results: from supporting border security and a strong national defense to funding roads, bridges and airports to making life easier for working families through my Paid Family Medical Leave Act, I have one long-time, conservative record that helped build Nebraska and keep America strong.”

Fischer has deep roots in greater Nebraska and a ranching background in Valentine, a town on the state's northern border. She has held a number of public offices in the state, including seats in the Nebraska Legislature and on the Valentine Rural High School Board of Education, and is now running for a third term.

Osborn, on the other hand, is focused on courting voters of all political parties, but is currently targeting Fischer's conservative base by highlighting his similarities with Trump.

“I tell people whether I'm sitting in Lincoln in a room full of Democrats or in Hastings, Nebraska, in a room full of Republicans or mixed people, my message doesn't change,” Osborn told USA TODAY. “That means Republicans are not the enemy, Democrats are not the enemy, corporations are the enemy.”

In addition to the candidates' uphill battle to portray each other as disingenuous, this race also highlights the candidates' focus on supporting unions.

Fischer has touted her support from unions across the state, including several police and fire organizations as well as the Nebraska Farmers Union, which supports several Democrats running for national office.

NFU President John Hansen defended Fischer, saying that since her time in the state legislature and as a member of the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, she has always prioritized the needs of the state's farmers and ranchers.

“Fischer is one of the few Republicans in Congress who was really willing to get out and try to build bipartisan support to get her legislation passed and tied to the Farm Bill,” Hansen said. “We know each other well. We have a good, functioning personal relationship.”

Osborn is supported by several unions and labor organizations, including the Nebraska AFL-CIO, United Auto Workers and Communications Workers of America and Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety.

According to Mike Helmink, the group's co-founder, one of the main reasons the NRPS supported Osborn is because of the frustration they faced when they were unable to contact Fischer's office during a labor dispute with railroads in the state in 2022 and treasurer.

“I think the race has gotten a lot of attention because he poses a serious threat,” Helmink said. “I don’t think Republicans expected this at all. They wanted to hope that it died and did nothing but grow bigger. It’s a good candidate, a good message and there are so many connections to so many people.”

Reuters contributed to reporting on this story

From the center outwards

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