• The big Senate race between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz could reveal a lot about the identity of Texas.
• The Lone Star State has been a GOP bastion for decades, but electoral shifts are changing that dynamic.
• BI spoke with Colin Allred in Houston about the race and how he views Cruz's term.

Democrats have been trying to regain their former glory in Texas for decades, but have failed time and time again.

The party hasn't won a statewide race in the Lone Star State since 1994, largely depriving it of the kind of bench Republicans have built for years through their dominance in state government.

When Rep. Colin Allred — a three-term representative who represents the 32nd Congressional District in the Dallas area — took on two-term Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in this year's Senate contest, many Democrats felt his bipartisan credentials would strengthen his candidacy.

Allred, 41, believes he can be a change agent for Texas. And less than a week before the election, he continues to compete with the 53-year-old Cruz.

A New York Times/Siena College poll in late October showed Cruz with a four-point lead over Allred (50% to 46%) among likely voters, but the same poll had former President Donald Trump ahead by 10 points Vice President Kamala Harris (52% to 42%). And other polls of the race, including those from Marist College, Morning Consult and the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs, each showed Cruz with a single-digit lead.

The race's competitiveness prompted the Senate Majority PAC — the Democratic political action committee affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York — to pour $5 million into the contest in recent days as the race in Texas is now widely viewed as the party's best opportunity to flip a red seat this year. According to his campaign, Allred has raised a total of more than $80 million for the Senate race.

But one important fact remains: Allred will have to overcome the state's Republican tilt to oust Cruz.

Reproductive rights and economics

I met with Allred before a recent Block Walk kickoff event in Houston, where the former NFL player and civil rights attorney laid out his case against Cruz's re-election.

But during our conversation we noticed something important.

In the past, Democrats in red states have often shied away from speaking out too forcefully on reproductive rights. After Roe v. However, after Wade was overturned by the US Supreme Court at the same time that Texas' strict abortion ban was passed, Allred criticized the “extremism” that he said would have a serious impact on the economy.

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In the Times/Siena poll, likely voters in Texas cited the economy as their most important issue, with 27% of respondents expressing that opinion. (The second and third ranked issues were immigration and abortion, with 15% supporting each issue.)

“The individual stories of people being denied care for miscarriages or being denied care when pregnancies were not viable and having to leave the state are horrific,” Allred told me after speaking at a reproductive rights rally Harris spoke in the headline, at which there was also an appearance by Beyoncé. “I know many of these women who have come forward. It's a personal matter. It also impacts every other aspect of life in Texas, from our medical schools to our universities to our business climate.”

The electoral map

In 2018, then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke traveled throughout Texas during his Senate campaign, visiting all 254 counties in the state.

Although Cruz ultimately won, he only beat O'Rourke by 2.6 percentage points, or about 215,000 votes out of more than 8.3 million votes cast.

O'Rourke's campaign that year served to energize Democratic voters – with an emphasis on young and progressive voters – and his town hall events became a signature part of his campaign.

Allred's campaign approach is a little different than that of O'Rourke, who represented the El Paso region in Congress from 2013 to 2019. He, too, is seeking to maximize Democratic turnout but has directed serious outreach to independents and Republicans to become part of his moderate campaign.

“I am demonstrably the most bipartisan Texan in Congress,” he told me during our conversation.

It's the kind of ethos Allred carries with him on his campaign tour through Texas, a behemoth state with huge cities and dozens of medium-sized and smaller towns in between. Driving through Texas from east to west can take about thirteen hours.

“This is a huge state, and what happens in one part of the state is not always known in the other part of the state,” Allred told me, adding from his experience, “I don't come across any Texans who look it up.” a pittance, but I meet Texans who are looking for someone to be on their side.

Texas Democrats are already doing well in cities like Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. But in the Trump era, Democrats have increasingly won over more suburban voters, a phenomenon that has helped the party enormously in other Sun Belt states like Arizona and Georgia. And if Allred wants to defeat Cruz, he'll have to show extremely strong numbers with suburban voters across the board.

Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, told me in an interview that Cruz is in a more difficult position compared to other Texas Republicans because he lacks substantial “crossover” support. Republicans have flexed their political muscle in the state for decades, based on strong support among party loyalists and conservative-leaning independents.

But Cruz, a former Republican presidential candidate, has left a polarizing profile both in Texas and on the national stage.

“He doesn’t have as much appeal among soft Republicans, independents and moderate to conservative Democrats as Gov. Greg Abbott or Sen. John Cornyn,” Jones said. “And it's not a huge amount, but he's at a disadvantage early on in that he has to win pretty much all of the Republican votes and make sure that Republicans get out in the election.”

Cruz “too small” for Texas

On the campaign trail, Allred has targeted Cruz's infamous trip to Cancún, Mexico, in 2021, which occurred when many Texans were without power due to a severe winter storm.

During our conversation, Allred portrayed Cruz as someone who doesn't have a broader vision for one of the fastest-growing states in the country, now home to over 30 million residents.

Business Insider has reached out to the Cruz campaign for comment.

“Texas is incredibly diverse and dynamic, but we have been governed by extremists who, in my opinion, have jeopardized all the positive aspects of our state,” Allred told me. “Ted Cruz in particular is someone who I think is just too small for Texas. His vision is too small for us. And for me, it’s kind of the opposite of the Texas I know.”

Allred, who would be the first Black senator from Texas if he defeats Cruz, also spoke about the difficulties of change in a state where Republicans have long had a tight grip on power.

“When you have a one-party state for so long, you can get the impression that nothing is going to change,” Allred told me. “We always feel like we need change. But can we break through?”