Casagrande: Welcome to the New Reality, Alabama's Stunning Role in the Revolution

This is an opinion column.

As college football observers, we have an internal danger meter.

It's like a kind of sonar that detects when problems are lurking around the corner. Take Alabama's trip to Tennessee two years ago as an example. The Crimson Tide were 8-9 point favorites in Knoxville, but the red lights flashed in this Six Sense before the Vols ended the generational losing streak against their old rival.

Well, the meter is broken.

Caught.

Maybe Earth's new mini-moon affects the tides or has a gravitational pull that disrupts college football.

We are looking for answers to understand the otherworldly reality you wake up to this Sunday morning.

Perhaps there is a down-to-earth explanation for the cannibalization of the SEC that sparked the crazy opening to “Spooky Season.”

We're talking about the unthinkable.

Vanderbilt 40, Alabama 35.

VANDERBILT.

A program has gone 148-3 in its last three meetings with an Alabama team fresh off a big win over preseason No. 1 Georgia.

Vander… Bilt.

What may have changed between the premier program over the last two decades and the program that traditionally lives in the basement of the SEC?

The great equalizer.

They flashed it in No. 4 Tennessee's impressive 19-14 loss to unranked Arkansas.

It is time to recognize the great equalizing effect of relaxed transfer rules and how quickly they can impact the difficulties of smoothing programs.

While Nick Saban has always warned that this would lead to the rich getting richer, it has also broadened the range of opportunities for those on the sidelines.

So a zero-star recruit from Albuquerque can spend two years at the New Mexico Military Institute and two more at New Mexico State before transferring to Vanderbilt and killing Goliath.

This is the story of Diego Pavia, the biggest nobody in the Class of 2020 who emerged as the architect of Vanderbilt's greatest football victory.

Van… the… bilt.

The 5-foot-11 master of chaos kept Alabama's blue-chip defense in a fog all Saturday afternoon. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards and two scores.

His ultimate goal? Eli Stowers, a 2021 Texas A&M quarterback who became a star tight end at New Mexico State and headed to Nashville the same way this offseason.

In some ways, Auburn played a role in all of this, as Pavia and Stowers played big roles in NMSU's then-stunning 31-10 win at Jordan-Hare Stadium, catching the attention of Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea. He not only grabbed the Aggies' offensive battery, but also their coordinator (Tim Beck) and head coach (Jerry Kill).

It sounds like a simplistic explanation for Vanderbilt's turnaround.

But the Commodores were 2-31 against SEC competition since the start of the 2020 season.

They are…Vanderbilt.

But the mix of talent and coaching staff is the unmistakable difference in the SEC pincushion that dwarfs the powerhouse. This is a Vandy team that went 2-10 (0-8 in the SEC) last year, with Hawaii and Alabama A&M the only casualties.

Down in Fayetteville, inconsistent Arkansas did everything it could to hand another top-five team a surprising loss. Pushing hard to make the big play in the final seconds? Doneiko Slaughter, a transfer from… Tennessee of all places. His pass breakdown on the second-to-last play sparked the ill-advised fourth-down scramble that secured the victory.

The Hogs were ready for the surprise when quarterback Taylen Green set the table. The transfer from Boise State failed after completing 19 of 27 passes for 266 yards.

The top target was Andrew Armstrong (nine catches, 132 yards), who began his career at Texas A&M Commerce. Running back Ja'Quinden Jackson, a transfer from Utah who began his career at Texas, had the first of two Razorback touchdowns.

They made a big difference on a night where they began as 14.5-point underdogs.

That same day, No. 9 Missouri was embarrassed by Texas A&M 41-10.

On the same day, No. 10 Michigan lost to a team from Washington, most recently Washington State and Rutgers.

That same day, No. 11 USC lost at Minnesota.

That same day/next day, No. 8 Miami nearly lost to ACC rival California (the same day it hosted one of the loudest ESPN College GameDay audiences ever). The Hurricanes rallied from a 35-10 deficit with 23 minutes to play to win 39-38.

And that same day, Vanderbilt (the Sewanee that never left the SEC) broke the counter.

Moon II, you are a savage.

But seriously, Vandy's win wasn't even a fluke.

Vanderbilt controlled the ball for 42 of the 60 minutes, outrebounding the Tide 418-396 and converting on 12 of 18 third-down attempts. Pavia was 8 of 10 for 100 yards on those third-down plays.

Vanderbilt scored on six of its first eight drives and stopped the clock on the ninth drive. Not once did Alabama's defense make a three-pointer.

To be clear: the portal is not the solution to get rich quick in all cases. Lane Kiffin is the portal king, betting everything on his transfers only to fall short against visiting Kentucky last week.

Is Vanderbilt now a real contender for the SEC title? Is Arkansas?

NO.

Are they capable of causing chaos on any Saturday?

No doubt.

Vanderbilt still has a loss to Georgia State to show the range of possibilities. Arkansas struggled with UAB, a 4-1 loss following a 71-20 loss to Tulane on Saturday.

So in this new world of equality, Kevin Garnett's prophecy is forever true.

Everything is possible.

Nobody is safe.

Sleep at your own risk.

Even the team that plays Vanderbilt.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or further Facebook.

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