22 September 2024

Sunday morning

A large area of ​​the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the central Gulf of Mexico is being monitored. The National Hurricane Center has given this region a 70% chance of tropical storm development in the next 7 days! This is POTENTIAL – NOT A PROMISE.

This is important considering that just a week ago we observed a storm off the coast of South Carolina that was expected to develop into a tropical storm. Despite 50 mph winds and 20 inches of rainfall on the North Carolina coast, it was never given a name because it lacked a true tropical structure.

This new area is different because it is further south and over very warm water. There is a better chance that it is a true tropical structure with a central warm core.

All forecast maps are pure speculation or educated guesses at this point. This storm has NOT YET FORMED, so the exact location and timing of a low pressure system can determine how it behaves and moves forward. This is a topic I'll be revisiting throughout the winter when a snowstorm is coming in a week or more. It's almost impossible to predict with any certainty before a storm has even formed. But here we go. I'll go along and take a look, so let's see.

Also check out the interactive Windy widget at the bottom of this post after the computer model maps.

The storms of the 2024 Atlantic tropical season named so far:

• Alberto, June 19-20; peaked as a tropical storm
• Beryl June 28 11; peaked as a Category 5 hurricane
• Chris June 30 to July 1; peaked as a tropical storm
• Debby 3 to 9 August
• Ernesto August 12-20; peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
• Francine, September 9-12; peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
• Gordon September 11-17; Tropical Storm

Helen is the NEXT NAME on the list

Outlook from the National Hurricane Center

There are some regions being tracked, but the red shaded area is the one we are concerned about. Remember, this is a 7-day outlook, so the potential development may be more likely to happen on Wednesday or Thursday.

The water temperatures are over 30 degrees Celsius, which promotes development when the high altitude winds cooperate.

Comparisons of computer models

Here's a look at the American GFS and European ECMWF models. Both show a storm developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, but have very different tracks and impacts.

GFS is STRONGER. This shows the landing north of Tampa, then the route to South Carolina and out to the Atlantic.

ECMWF is WEAKER. This shows a trail further north and into the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night

Friday night

Supposition

This proves that it is too early AND that there is no guarantee as to who will be affected.

The latest future low pressure systems differ considerably in the GFS and European ECMWF models. Again, it depends on where the low pressure system is predicted to form according to the models, when this happens and what influence the upper-level winds have on its development and movement.

In the mid-Atlantic, both currents miss us and only bring moisture into our cold front (another system). But if there is anything passing through the middle, we need to stay alert.

Animations:

Thursday, 26 September to Sunday, 29 September

Below you will find the most important “snapshot comparison”.

GFS model

ECMWF model

Snapshot comparison

Reminder: These are suggestions and are likely to change depending on when the storm takes shape.

Thursday night

GFS model

This diagram shows a landfall north of Tampa, Florida.

ECMWF model

This pot shows that the core low pressure is still above the water and is not as strong.

Friday morning

GFS model

This diagram shows the (possible tropical) storm over the coast of South Carolina near Charleston.

ECMWF model

In this area, low pressure systems are located much further west in central Georgia.

Friday night

GFS model

This chart shows a stronger low pressure system along the North Carolina coast. Interaction with a cold front may result in a significant drop in rain north of Virginia Beach.

ECMWF model

This chart is quite different because the low pressure system is located far inland north of Nashville near Lexington. It would not be a tropical depression, but would bring torrential rain to the Ohio Valley.

Interactive widget by WINDY

Use the margin below to scroll through to Wednesday, when this storm may form near Cancun and enter the Gulf of Mexico.

Please share your thoughts and best weather pictures/videos or just stay in touch via social media.

Plan a weather-dependent trunk assembly

Severe weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

Winter weather FITF (Faith in the Flakes): November to March

Click here to see more and submit a request for your school.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH:

Baltimore Magazine Readers' Choice The Best of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat 10 August

We have raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND are still raising more

The annual event: 329 miles of hiking and biking in 7 days between the summit of Wisp and Ocean City.

Every day we honor the journey of a child and his family through cancer.

The fundraising goes to Just In Power Kids: funding free holistic programs. I have never taken a penny and never will. It's all about running our nonprofit.

Click here or on the image to donate:

My message about dyslexia again

I realize there are some spelling and grammatical errors and the occasional other mishap. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I might miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here, you may have missed it: I'm dyslexic and found out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had come this far without prior knowledge and that I shouldn't use it as a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I overlook my mistakes when proofreading. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes does it wrong and makes it worse. I can also make mistakes with predictions. No one can predict the future perfectly. All the maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can prove difficult.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a timely timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to correct typos when she has time. That might be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps prove that what you are reading is really mine… That's part of my charm. #FITF