After clinching a victory in the American League East on Thursday, there appears to be nothing left for the New York Yankees to play on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

With that in mind, this should be crucial for Carlos Rodon as he looks to continue building on his form ahead of the playoffs for a team with all sorts of question marks in the starting lineup. This makes my Pirates vs. Yankees predictions believe it will be a productive night for New York.

Without further ado, let’s get to our MLB picks for Friday, September 27th.

Pirates vs Yankees prediction

My best choice
Yankees F5 -0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

My analysis
We may end up seeing the New York Yankees' “hangover lineup,” but Carlos Rodon will be ready to take the mound.

The 31-year-old has been good enough with a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts this season, but he is working to get back to the level he reached in 2021-2022, when he was in the Cy Young voting finished in the top 6 in the second round -years back.

Rodon's swing-and-miss numbers began to rise as we entered the middle of summer, and his strikeouts followed suit. In September, he pitched really well with a 1.93 ERA in 23 1/3 innings, striking out 29 batters.

Since June 1, Rodon has a 29.6% strikeout rate with an expected batting average of .219 – although he has continued to focus on fly balls and has carried a .411 expected batting average in those outings.

However, Rodon has improved his performance this month, dropping those numbers to .209 and .375, respectively, for a 31.5% strikeout rate. This puts him in a great position against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have a very poor 28% strikeout rate over the last two weeks and ranked 27th in Isolated Power.

Jared Jones will be against Rodon, and his story is a little different. He turned heads early, but has a 5.24 ERA in September with a concerning four home runs. And after issuing a 13 1/3 walk in his first two starts in September, he got six walkouts in his last two.

New York has beaten right-handers more than any other team and remains devastating to pitchers who struggle to lead. Over the past two weeks, they have been used in 11.9% of plate appearances. While power numbers may be down, bases should see early traffic.

It's not often the easiest bet, but I like scoring the runs in the first five innings as Rodon enters an incredibly friendly matchup. However, I would stay away from the run line throughout the game as the Yankees bullpen has been a huge mess this month.

Aaron Judge's pick: Rare day off

My best choice
N/A

My analysis
Aaron Judge received a rare day off Friday night against the Pirates.

Pirates vs. Yankees – Match Game Parlay (SGP)

Yankees F5 -0.5

Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 runs

Carlos Rodon 8+ strikeouts

Gleyber Torres has thrived since taking over as New York's new leader, excelling in the role with a .278 average. While he leaves a lot to be desired in the power department, he has still posted an OBP of .345 at that position, sitting at .378 in September.

In those 23 games, Torres has scored 18 runs and has topped the plate in four of his last five. In 54 games as batsman, he scored 36 runs.

Then I'll take Rodon up to eight punchouts during his dominant strikeout run. He's reached that number in three of his last six, and with Pittsburgh scoring an incredible amount, that should settle in nicely here. Also keep in mind that before facing mediocre strikeout arms in the last five games, opposing starters had reached that number in five of eight games.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pirates vs Yankees odds

Pirates vs Yankees live odds

Pirates vs. Yankees opening odds

• Money line: Pittsburgh +160 | New York -190
• running line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-125) | New York -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Below 8.5 (-120)

Pirates vs. Yankees Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Yankees entered the game as -190 favorites, but that number dropped to -165 after winning the division.
• While 89% of bets on DraftKings are on the Yankees, they have a slightly lower 82% of the money.
• The total also fell after the Yankees got the win, starting at 8.5 and falling steadily to 7.5 Friday afternoon.
• 74% of tickets and 82% of handles are in the over.

Pirates vs. Yankees trend.

The Yankees have reached the game total over in 61 of their last 102 games (+19.75 units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.

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