Energy analysts predicted that former President Trump's re-election could mean a potential boost for oil companies, despite fears that geopolitical tensions could lead to possible price increases.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, posted on

But he also said it “could be bad for prices” if Trump tightens or tightens sanctions on Iran.

Blue state regulators could raise the price at the pump just days after the election, Republican lawmakers warn

Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group and FOX Business contributor, said Iran exports about 1.7 million barrels per day and if Trump imposes sanctions on those barrels, there will have to be “some catch up.” “

OPEC could help with production, but if not, it will be up to the U.S. to fill that gap, Flynn said.

“The lack of new leases and inflation are making it harder for U.S. oil and gas companies to fill this gap,” he added, referring to the way the U.S. government uses federally owned land for oil – and gas production leases.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refining capacity peaked in 2020 and then declined in 2021 and 2022. While capacity increased in 2023 and 2024, it has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. For example, in 2020, refining capacity was 18.98 million barrels per calendar day. In 2024 it will be around 18.38 million barrels per calendar day.

Phillips 66 suspended its petroleum refining activities at one facility in February, although this is not yet reflected in annual data, the EIA said.

“With global supplies well below average, the loss of Iranian barrels could lead to higher prices and widen the global supply deficit,” Flynn added.

Still, both analysts predict lower prices are ahead.

Although De Haan doesn't believe Trump's promise to cut energy prices in half is “realistic,” he predicts prices will stay around $3 a gallon over the summer before falling below $3 at the end of the year per gallon fall.

CALIFORNIA'S “SECRET” 50 CENT GAS TAX INCREASE IS COMING IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS

“This seems to be the new norm. Trump could choose to simplify gasoline standards, which could help drive down prices in the long run,” De Haan wrote.

The current average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.12, down from $3.42 last year.

Flynn warned that geopolitical risk factors could lead to price spikes, but a rise in the U.S. dollar and hopes that the U.S. would increase drilling would “bring down energy costs almost immediately.”