Carrie Olson remembers the first time she was told that Denver Public Schools would have to close schools because fewer babies were being born.

She had only been on the Board of Education a year or two when the state demographer predicted the difficult decision that Olson — first elected in 2017 — and her colleagues will weigh after Superintendent Alex Marrero unveils his school closure plan this week.

Olson, a veteran educator, didn't believe at the time that she would close a school as a board member. She said she didn't yet understand the connections. Fewer babies means fewer children in school across the DPS system, ultimately resulting in Colorado's largest district losing tens of millions of dollars in per-student funding each year.

Now, Olson said, she and her colleagues are resigned to having to make what will likely be one of the toughest decisions of their tenure on the board — a decision the majority opposed two years ago when Marrero presented them with a similar plan.

“It’s time for us to address this,” said Olson, now president of the Denver school board. “It’s time because we need to be fiscally responsible to our district and think about how we can best serve all students.”

Marrero and district staff remained tight-lipped about their closure plan, which the superintendent will present to the board at its Thursday meeting. The board is scheduled to vote on accepting the recommendation on November 21st.

DPS officials have not said how many schools will be on that list — the district has more than 200 — or where in Denver they might be located. The last time Marrero presented a list of potential schools to close, the board ultimately agreed to close three schools after a months-long process.

Further school closures in Denver are now necessary to prevent “a full-blown crisis,” Marrero told the board last week.

Enrollment in public schools is declining across the country

In the United States, K-12 public school enrollment is declining because fewer babies are being born. The decline coincided with the onset of the pandemic, which also led to fewer students attending public schools due to chronic absenteeism and an increase in homeschooling.

“There is a declining birth rate across the country,” Olson said.

Statewide, public school enrollment reached its lowest level in a decade at 881,464 students in the 2023-24 school year, as other districts face similar challenges to DPS, including Jeffco Public Schools and the Douglas County School District.

Jeffco has already closed more than a dozen schools in the past year. The Douglas County School District is expected to announce its consolidation plan in April, with schools expected to close at the end of the 2025-26 school year.

At DPS, enrollment peaked at 92,112 students in 2019 and continued to decline until last school year, when the unexpected arrival of hundreds of migrant children drove up the number of students in DPS classrooms. DPS enrollment increased by 371 students to 88,235 students in the 2023-24 academic year.

Despite that small increase, there were 3,877 fewer children enrolled in Denver public schools last year than at the peak in 2019. DPS officials expect enrollment to decline in the 2028-29 school year.

District officials said DPS has not experienced large numbers of students leaving to be homeschooled or attend private schools, but it faces an additional challenge to enrollment: gentrification.

Gentrification and rising housing costs have changed the lives of children in the city and even pushed families out of Denver.

“People are moving to places where they can actually afford to live,” said Rob Gould, president of the Denver Classroom Teachers Association.

Fewer students means less money for schools

Not only do schools have fewer children in their classrooms when enrollment declines; They also receive less funding per student.

DPS receives $11,750 in state funding per student each year, excluding other sources of revenue such as: B. Overrides of mill taxes.

The district has lost a total of $107 million in revenue since enrollment peaked in 2019. By 2028, the district predicts DPS will bring in $70 million less annually than it did five years ago — and that's the best-case scenario, Chief Finance Officer Chuck Carpenter said in a statement.

“And that’s why, as painful as it is, we have to do something,” he said.

DPS, which has a $1.4 billion budget, also projects a $2.6 million deficit for the 2024-25 fiscal year. (That could change after the state's October census enrollment numbers are finalized.) Federal pandemic aid, which has shored up district budgets in recent years, has also run out.

The district's consideration of school closures comes as voters are asked to approve a nearly $1 billion bond proposal. But if approved by voters on Tuesday, the ballot measure will not be used to support the county's overall budget. Instead, the funds would be used for maintenance and capital needs, such as expanding air conditioning in schools.

The district also plans to use money from the bond sale to build a new school in far northeast Denver, where enrollment is rising.

Regardless of whether DPS closes schools or not, the district will continue to bring in less money because fewer students are enrolled. For schools, this can impact their ability to operate, let alone provide the services needed to meet students' academic and mental health needs, according to DPS officials.

If a school enrolls 100 fewer students, the building's budget drops by about $1 million, Carpenter said.

On average, a teacher costs DPS about $110,000 per person annually, including salary and benefits. That means without those 100 students, a school no longer has the money to pay nine employees, including teachers, mental health workers, support staff and interventionists, Carpenter said. It may also mean that there are fewer electives for students because the school wouldn't have enough money to fill courses like drama or foreign languages.

DPS is spending between $15 million and $20 million in budget support to ensure low-enrollment schools remain operational, Olson said.

“This is unstable for us to move forward over time,” she said

If the board decides to vote against Marrero's closure plan, the schools may be forced to close “operationally” because there is no financial way to keep them open, Olson said.

“Everyone knew that this was reality”

This will be Marrero's second attempt to close schools in two years. He initially proposed a plan to close 10 schools in 2022, but the Education Department was reluctant to do so even after he narrowed the list to five. Ultimately, the board voted last year to close just three schools: Denver Discovery, Fairview Elementary and Mathematics and Science Leadership Academy.

Two years ago, board members also criticized the district's process for school closures, saying they had only two weeks to make a decision and were not given enough information about how the plan would be implemented.

This time, the process looked a little different — although the seven-member board will still only have two weeks between announcing the plan and its vote on Nov. 21. Earlier this year, the board opened the door for Marrero to submit another plan. He adopted a school closure plan by adopting a policy that set guidelines for his recommendation, including a timeline.

“Everyone has known that this is a reality that has been looming for two years,” Gould said.

And that includes the school board, Olson said.

“Maybe we’ll be a little more resigned this time,” Olson said of board members’ opinions on potential closures. “We have made it as clear as possible that this is coming.”

But the potential closures have also drawn criticism in the community, including from Movimiento Poder, which advocates for racial justice in DPS schools.

School closures can disrupt families' daily lives, including a child's ability to access education if their parents do not own a car, said Elsa Banuelos-Lindsay, executive director of Movimiento Poder.