The Alaska House of Representatives will have two fewer Republicans, according to preliminary election results released by the Alaska Division of Elections after polls closed on Election Day.

As of 3 a.m. Wednesday, the House consisted of 20 Republicans, 14 Democrats and six independents, increasing the likelihood that the new House will be controlled by a mostly Democratic coalition rather than the current mostly Republican majority.

Thousands of absentee and primary votes still need to be counted in elections across the state, meaning current voting leaders could change as more ballots are added to the count.

Additionally, if there are three or more candidates in a race and no one has more than 50% of the vote, ranked-choice voting will be conducted on November 20 to determine the ultimate winner.

There are changes in the far north and far south

In Ketchikan, independent Rep. Dan Ortiz did not run for re-election and is likely to be replaced by Republican Jeremy Bynum, who received 51.6% of the vote as of Tuesday night, with 10 of 10 precincts reporting results. Some ballots cast during early voting or absentee voting were not counted, so the results that all precincts report are also subject to change.

This Republican gain is likely to be offset by gains from the North Slope and the Northwest Arctic Borough, where Republican-turned-independent Thomas Baker is likely to lose his election. Baker was appointed to the House of Representatives as a Republican by Gov. Mike Dunleavy late last year, but gave up his party affiliation after the end of the legislative session.

14 of 20 precincts reported him receiving 20.7% of the vote, ahead of Democratic candidate Saima “Ikrik” Chase with 20.5% but behind Robyn “Niayuq” Burke with 58%. If no candidate receives at least 50% of the vote, the final winner will be determined via ranked choice voting on November 20th.

The current minority coalition is likely to win three seats

In Anchorage, Democratic candidate Ted Eischeid led Republican Rep. Stanley Wright with 111 of 3,937 votes cast, with all precincts in House District 22 reporting.

Elsewhere in Anchorage, Republican and former Rep. Chuck Kopp led Republican Rep. Craig Johnson by 23 percentage points at the end of Election Day. Kopp was part of a bipartisan majority coalition that governed the House from 2019 to 2021 and has expressed interest in restoring that coalition.

Also in Anchorage, nonpartisan candidate Ky Holland is on track to defeat Republican Lucy Bauer in the race to replace Rep. Laddie Shaw, who did not run for re-election. At the end of election day, Holland was ahead of Bauer by 6.4 percentage points.

Mainstream Republicans may have ousted Eastman

Republican hardliner David Eastman has frequently clashed with House Republican leaders and is not a member of the House majority. As of Tuesday evening, Jubilee Underwood, a majority-backed Republican challenger, had a 211-vote lead over Eastman with 6,246 ballots counted so far.

If Underwood replaces Eastman, it will likely give a Republican-led faction in the House an additional vote.

The JBER race is too close to call

In House District 18, which includes Anchorage's Government Hill neighborhood and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Democratic Rep. Cliff Groh leads Republican candidate David Nelson with 28 of 2,703 votes at the end of Election Day.

As of Nov. 1, Alaska residents in the district had requested 1,805 mail-in ballots and returned 705. Only 569 mail-in ballots were included in the Election Day count, suggesting the results could change.

Nelson previously held the seat for one term. In 2022, Groh defeated Nelson with the support of second-choice votes from supporters of third-place Democratic candidate Lyn Franks.

Republicans replace Republicans

In the Kenai Peninsula, Republican Bill Elam leads Republican John Hillyer 51.3%-47.3% in the race to replace Rep. Ben Carpenter, R-Nikiski. Carpenter declined to seek re-election and is instead seeking a Senate seat. He trails Republican Senator Jesse Bjorkman in this race.

In Wasilla, Republican Rep. Jesse Sumner declined to seek re-election and withdrew after the primary. A three-way race to choose his successor is too close, with Republican Elexie Moore leading Republicans Steve Menard and Jessica Wright.

Moore had 37.2% of the vote, Menard 36% and Wright 25.3%, and the race will almost certainly be decided by ranked-choice voting.

A change in southwest Alaska?

With 16 of 24 precincts in House District 38 in southwest Alaska, Democratic candidate Nellie “Unangik” Jimmie leads Democratic incumbent Rep. CJ McCormick 36-33.6%. With neither candidate likely to break the 50% mark, the race will almost certainly come down to second- and third-place finishers Democratic candidate Victoria Sosa with 4.5% of the vote and Veterans Party candidate Willy Keppel with 25.7 % decided.

Mia Costello returns to the Legislature

Former state representative and senator Mia Costello will be re-elected to the state House of Representatives on Tuesday evening, according to preliminary results. Costello, a Republican, led his Democratic opponent Denny Wells by nearly 8 percentage points, with all precincts reporting results.

Wells lost to Republican Tom McKay by just seven votes in the state's 2022 House of Representatives election and was scheduled to run against McKay again this year, but McKay suspended his campaign and was replaced by Costello.

Schwanke will likely replace Cronk in House District 36

Republican candidate Rebecca Schwanke leads the massive Alaska Interior House District 36, with 37 of 40 districts reporting their results at 3 a.m. Wednesday. The incumbent, Republican Rep. Mike Cronk, is on track to be elected to the state Senate.

Schwanke had 36.6% of the vote in a four-way race, with Democratic candidate Brandon “Putuuqti” Kowalski in second place with 32%. Schwanke is favored in the rankings because fellow Republican candidate Pam Goode is third with 25.5% of the vote and her secondary voters are expected to support Schwanke. Libertarian candidate James Fields has 5.5% of the vote despite suspending his campaign after the primary.

Incumbents sweep Fairbanks

According to results at the end of Election Day, all Fairbanks state House representatives are on track to be re-elected.

With 4 out of 4 electoral districts, Democratic Representative Maxine Dibert is ahead of her Republican challenger Bart LeBon in House District 31 by 6.8 percentage points. LeBon held the seat for four years but lost to Dibert in 2022 in a race that also included a second Republican. LeBon challenged Dibert in a head-to-head competition this year.

In neighboring House District 32, Republican Rep. Will Stapp leads Democratic challenger Gary Damron by 37.5 percentage points in a district that includes Fort Wainwright. Stapp ends his first term in office.

Republican Rep. Frank Tomaszewski, first elected in 2022, is also headed for re-election in a heavily Republican district that includes Fox, Two Rivers and Salcha. At the end of election day, he had a lead of 13.6 percentage points over the more moderate Republican Joy Beth Cottle.

In west Fairbanks, Democratic Rep. Ashley Carrick led Republican candidate Ruben McNeill by 7.7 percentage points at the end of election day. Carrick has represented the district since 2022.

A quarter of the seats in the House of Representatives were unopposed

Of the 40 members of the House of Representatives, 10 were unopposed in the general election, including one newcomer:

• In Southeast Alaska: Rep. Rebecca Himschoot, I-Sitka; Sara Hannan, D-Juneau; and Andi Story, D-Juneau, were unopposed except for write-in votes.
• In Anchorage, Democratic candidate Carolyn Hall was elected with more than 55% of the vote after her only competitor, nonpartisan candidate Nick Moe, suspended his campaign but failed to file formal withdrawal papers in a timely manner.
• Also in Anchorage, Rep. Zack Fields, D-Anchorage, was re-elected without opposition other than write-in votes.
• Rep. Dan Saddler, R-Eagle River, was unopposed, as were his colleagues from Matanuska-Susitna County, Reps. DeLena Johnson, R-Palmer, Cathy Tilton, R-Wasilla, and Rep. George Rauscher, R-Sutton .
• Rep. Mike Prax, R-North Pole, was also re-elected without opposition.