Lichtman cannot predict the correct outcome of the presidential election

He was wrong.

At least that's what the American people decided.

Allan Lichtman, the historian who has predicted nine of the last 10 elections, could not accurately predict who voters would choose as the 47th President of the United States.

In a stunning political comeback, former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris on Tuesday night to retake the White House.

“Right now I'm taking time out after a very long night to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America,” Lichtman told USA TODAY Wednesday morning.

Lichtman, an American university professor, had predicted that Harris would narrowly beat Trump.

Trump, who lost the 2020 election that put President Joe Biden in the seat, overcame political obstacles including two impeachments, a criminal conviction and two attempted murders.

At the end of a nearly six-hour podcast hosted by his son Samuel Lichtman on Tuesday, the 77-year-old history professor said he was shocked by the election outcome.

“Tune in on Thursday to discuss what happened.”

In a post on

“We will move forward and evaluate last night’s results,” he wrote. “Please tune in Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss what happened.”

“At a certain point the math just doesn’t add up anymore.”

The famous forecaster had said his “13 key” system showed Harris would win.

Using his system, Lichtman has now correctly predicted nine of 11 presidential elections since 1984. His only other blemish came in 2000, when Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

Lichtman noted that national poll results showed that democracy was becoming a major issue among voters, with the economy still top of mind, followed by issues like abortion (14%) and immigration (11%).

“If she can prevail against Pennsylvania, she still has a good chance,” Lichtman said near the final hour of the show, before Nevada’s results were announced. “She’s running out of votes.”

Pennsylvania was later called for Trump.

“At a certain point the math just doesn’t add up,” his son said near the end of the interview. “This show was just crazy… I think we're both a little surprised.”

Lichtman: “I think she lost”

For the last hour, while Lichtman and his son were analyzing the votes in the swing state of Pennsylvania, his son was calling the election.

“I think she lost,” his son said in the final ten minutes of the show.

“I do too,” Lichtman replied immediately, then placed both hands on his temples. “Something ridiculous would have to happen… I'm still looking for a Pennsylvania miracle, but I don't think we'll see it.”

“I got a lot of very nice emails,” Lichtman told his son, “saying they really respect my voice no matter what.”

“The math doesn’t add up,” said Lichtman. “The numbers don’t lie.”

“I can’t believe it,” his son said. “I’m kind of in shock right now.”

His father replied, “It’s hard to believe.”

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Contributor: Jonathan Limehouse.

Natalie Neysa Alund is a senior reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] and follow her on X @nataliealund.

“Tune in on Thursday to discuss what happened.”

“At a certain point the math just doesn’t add up anymore.”

Lichtman: “I think she lost”

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