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Historians with a string of accurate election predictions since 1984 are failing after Trump's victory in 2024


Historians with a string of accurate election predictions since 1984 are failing after Trump's victory in 2024

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has predicted almost every election since 1984, was proven wrong this cycle after President-elect Trump cruised to victory on Election Day.

The Fox News Decision Desk predicted Trump would win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday after Wisconsin's call for the former president officially pushed him past the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

Lichtman, an election forecaster who had correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984, developed a formula used to predict presidential elections. He predicted after the Democratic National Convention that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the White House this cycle — but election night results show his prediction was wrong.

Lichtman's “Key to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he says provide a strong indication of who will be crowned the winner on election night. Every question is asked about the two dueling nominees; If “true” they receive a “key”, if “false” their competitor receives the point.

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Professor Allan Lichtman

History professor Allan Lichtman gives a lecture on his “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington, DC, on October 28, 2008 (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images)

The “keys” are as follows: party mandate, competition, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

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According to Lichtman's prediction, Harris had nine of the 13 keys before Election Day. These included no primary, no third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, foreign/military success, and no challenger charisma.

However, Trump defeated Harris when he received 277 electoral votes and counting.

Trump family victory

On election night, (from left) Barron Trump, President-elect Trump, former First Lady Melania Trump, Usha Chilukuri Vance, Senator JD Vance and Ivanka Trump celebrate in West Palm Beach, Florida on Wednesday, November 6, 2024. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

“The keys show that Kamala Harris is a predicted winner,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital before the election.

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After Trump was projected to be the 47th president, Lichtman said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that he was “evaluating last night's results.”

In a statement shared with Fox News Digital, Lichtman said he would address the results soon.

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