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Why AP called Pennsylvania for Trump


Why AP called Pennsylvania for Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — If there wasn't a red wave on the country's most consequential battlefield, there was at least a red wave.

Donald Trump recaptured Pennsylvania by improving his margins across the state, narrowing Democratic President Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Philadelphia, expanding his own dominance in rural parts of the state and – at the time The Associated Press called the race at 2 :24 p.m. ET called out – flipping key suburban districts into the GOP fold.

Trump led the state by about 175,000 votes when the AP called the race. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris had the outstanding votes — including ballots from counties she lost — by 20 points over Trump, she still wouldn't be able to close the gap.

Trump's victory was evident across the state. Trump was in the lead in populous Bucks County, in suburban Philadelphia, and neighboring Northampton County, two front-runner seats that Biden won four years ago. Trump did several points better in the populous Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and Delaware. He won in Erie, in the northwest corner of the state, where Biden narrowly won four years ago.

Even in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia, Trump did three percentage points better than four years ago.

CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

WINNER: Trump

POLL CLOSURE: 8:00 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: The biggest prize in contention this year, Pennsylvania have experienced dozens of visits of Harris and Trump – more than any other state.

Trump survived an assassination attempt on Butler in this state in the summer. He appeared at rallies and events across the state and donned an apron at a McDonald's in suburban Philadelphia to engage with voters.

Harris appeared at the spot where George Washington crossed the Delaware River during the Revolutionary War to emphasize her support for some Republicans disillusioned with Trump. In the final days of the race, she held a campaign rally in Philadelphia – a major source of Democratic support.

Trump led the state by one point in 2016, while Biden defeated it by one point in 2020.

Pennsylvania was grappling with a relatively new early voting option that allowed voters to request mail-in ballots that could be cast before Election Day.

Unlike early voting in other states that have polling places, Pennsylvania counties saw lines of searching people partly after Trump and billionaire Elon Musk encouraged Republicans to adopt mail-in voting. In 2020, Trump baselessly said that mail-in ballots were rife with fraud.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Trump did better in traditionally Democratic Philadelphia than Biden did four years ago, improving his margins in key populous suburban districts. The race was called when it became clear that Harris could not close the gap even if she won the outstanding votes by a larger margin than before.

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Learn more about how and why the AP chooses the winners of the US elections at declare election 2024, A series from The Associated Press designed to help understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. Learn more about AP's Democracy Initiative Here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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