Harris' Path to Victory Narrows as Trump Wins Georgia (Updated)

Topline

Former President Donald Trump built a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on election night after winning Georgia and North Carolina, and he is ahead in five other contests shortly after the polls closed – leaving Harris with just a slim lead of 270 electoral votes has.

Jamel Toppin for Forbes

Important facts

Trump's victories in North Carolina and Georgia, according to Associated Press election calls, brought his electoral vote total to 247, while Harris won 210 and Trump lagged in the vote count in five other battlegrounds that are still too close to call.

The losses in the two southeastern battlefields significantly narrow Harris' paths to victory and make her more reliant on the three “blue wall” states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Harris will still reach exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all three of those northern swing states, as well as all other non-swing states that President Joe Biden won in 2020 — although she currently trails in all three.

Pennsylvania is now a must-win for Harris, as a Trump win there (along with victories in the other non-swing states he won in 2020) would give him 270 electoral votes.

In theory, the vice president could win by securing Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan (allowing her to lose Wisconsin), or she could win by securing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada (while losing Michigan) – although that is less likely.

Important background

If elected, Harris would be the first woman and first person of South Asian descent elected to the White House, after a tumultuous campaign that saw her placed at the top of the list of candidates to replace Biden after winning the Democratic primary in had won confidently in all states and was eliminated from the race. Harris' entry into the contest marked a reunification of her party after Biden's reluctance to withdraw from the race – even though Trump was well ahead in the polls – exposed deep divisions within the party. Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris hours after Biden announced his historic decision to resign on July 21, less than a month after his momentous debate with Trump on June 27. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate two weeks before the Democratic National Convention. She enjoyed a brief honeymoon period in the polls and was widely seen as the winner of her first and only debate with Trump on September 10, but Trump has narrowed the gap in the polls and the two were nearly tied nationally and in all battlegrounds heading into the election. Harris, 60, the daughter of a South Indian mother, a renowned breast cancer researcher, and a black father, a renowned economist, was born in Oakland, attended Howard University for an undergraduate degree and received her law degree from the University of California Hastings. She was elected San Francisco's attorney general in 2004 and in 2011 became the first Black, first woman and first Asian American to serve as California's attorney general. She was elected to the Senate in 2016 and ran for president in 2019.

tangent

Harris has largely focused her campaign on criticizing Trump and warning about the dangers he believes he poses if he wins re-election. She has called him a “fascist,” joined with prominent anti-Trump Republicans, including former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., to campaign against him and has repeatedly highlighted his promise to retaliate against his politicians He recently described opponents as “the enemy from within”. In her abbreviated campaign schedule, some of Harris' policy proposals were short on details, and she faced the difficult task of differentiating herself from Biden without stoking criticism of his administration. Harris has also backed off or remained silent on some of her previous, more progressive policy proposals, including a federal ban on fracking and decriminalizing illegal border crossings (both of which she says she no longer supports). She and her campaign have refused to say definitively whether she still supports other policies she once advocated, including decriminalizing prostitution and slavery reparations for black Americans. Harris has promised, if elected, to take economic policies to boost the middle class, including not raising taxes on Americans earning $400,000 or less, a federal ban on price gouging and no tax on tips. She has also vowed to expand the child tax credit for lower- and middle-class families and wants to give first-time homebuyers $25,000 in down payment assistance.

Main critic

Trump portrayed Harris as a puppet of the Biden administration and the Democratic Party, accusing her of inauthenticity and coining the nickname “lyin' Kamala” for the vice president. Trump has suggested without evidence that Harris made up her college summer job at McDonald's and has even questioned her race. In one of his most incendiary attacks on Harris during the campaign, Trump suggested that Harris had become “black” even though she had repeatedly spoken about her biracial heritage throughout her decades-long political career. He also blamed her for the rise in illegal border crossings during the Biden administration and last summer's record-high inflation rates (which have since leveled off), attacked her intelligence agencies, and repeatedly claimed that she had a “low IQ” and was “lazy.” . and “slowly”.