Win or lose, the GOP is Trump's party

Donald Trump is about to begin a new presidency — or the start of a post-campaign career that could be filled with prosecutions, lawsuits, legal fees and political accusations.

The next presidential administration will look dramatically different depending on whether Trump prevails or falls on Election Day, but some things will likely be true either way.

Trump's influence on American political life has been profound. Some of the discord, crudity, controversy and political realignment he ushered in could fade if he loses, but much of it could remain in some form, experts say.

Win or lose, Trumpism will have a massive impact on a Republican Party that finds itself at a crossroads.

If Trump loses, “there's going to be a lot of handshaking and finger-pointing right away,” said pollster Frank Luntz, who has worked with Republican candidates for decades.

If he wins? Another Trumpier party.

Luntz said: “A victory can heal all wounds. If Trump wins, the party will truly be his and the movement will move forward.”

Many Republicans believe there is no going back to the old Republican Party before Trump took it over and reshaped it in his own image. The new MAGA GOP is more extreme, worker-oriented and populist than the old, business-oriented internationalist party.

“This Republican Party has changed forever,” said Matt Schlapp, chairman of the Conservative Political Action Committee.

But Trump's influence goes far beyond politics and populism.

It is characterized by his combative personality, his lack of inhibitions and his willingness to ignore democratic norms to go where others won't go, pushing past political boundaries in ways that many find alarming – for example by threatening to use the military against Americans who oppose him.

“Trump doesn’t care about the rules, he doesn’t think they apply to him,” said Ty Cobb, who worked as a lawyer in the Trump White House and is now a critic.

Because Trump has said and done things that other politicians wouldn't say, he could make it easier for others to follow him.

Trump has weathered one scandal after another – including two impeachments, incitement of insurrection, four criminal charges, a 34-count conviction and a civil verdict finding him liable for sexual abuse and defamation – and thereby normalized his party. which would previously have been disqualifying.

He has threatened to use the government to persecute his political enemies, prompting criticism that he is pushing democracy to the breaking point.

And by falsely claiming that the 2020 election was stolen and continuing his baseless rhetoric about “fraud” in the 2024 campaign, Trump has undermined millions of Americans’ trust in the electoral system. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll in January found that 67% of Trump supporters did not believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected and 52% were not confident that the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported.

It could be difficult to restore that trust, especially since Trump is sure to continue his message if he loses. Lawsuits over possible loss seem likely. Trump's campaign filed dozens of lawsuits challenging his 2020 defeat, and almost all of them failed.

Trump has also seized on the darker rhetoric of far-right figures, raising questions about whether such inflammatory language could find broader acceptance in the Republican Party.

The former president regularly criticizes his opponents and uses language associated with authoritarian regimes, describing his political opposition as “enemies from within” and “vermin.”

Trump's transgressive approach has proven popular on the right.

“What he embodies is the idea that it's OK to hit someone, twist their arm and have everyone cheer for it, that's really attractive to a lot of people,” said Trump biographer Gwenda Blair.

Many of Trump's inflammatory comments targeted undocumented immigrants, saying they were “poisoning the blood” of the country and that those who commit murder had “bad genes.” Contrary to crime data, he has regularly linked illegal immigration to widespread crime.

Immigration has become the defining issue for Republicans in the Trump era and will continue to be a focus. Trump changed the conversation and promised to deport every immigrant in the country illegally − more than 11 million people.

Trump's hardline approach and refusal to negotiate differences within his party have driven away moderates and led most of the party's top leaders to embrace MAGA populism. Even the insurrection on January 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol to prevent the certification of the 2020 vote, did not stop most in the party from embracing him again.

“I mean, if he gets away with Jan. 6 and still dominates the conscience of what appears to be nearly 50% of the electorate four years later, I have no illusions that his influence will continue,” Cobb said.

Even if Trump loses, some of his opponents are preparing for a longer battle against the former president's influence after Election Day.

“When Trump is gone, his stain will remain on the Republicans who bowed to his fascist dreams. That's why we must keep fighting, even after Tuesday,” the Anti-Trump Lincoln Project wrote on X-Monday, releasing a video in which former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger talks about other Republican figures taking up Trump's “mantle” and the need to keep him opposition “overwhelmed”.

The scramble over who will lead the party after Trump has already begun, and the 2028 Republican presidential candidates will begin making their moves — immediately if Trump loses and later in the cycle if he wins.

Trump running mate JD Vance is already receiving attention. Other Republicans are looking for candidates who fell short in 2024, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Trump issues will continue to be popular with the base, GOP members said.

Planning a path forward after Trump would take time. Some Republicans may want to conduct another one of their regular “autopsies” after a loss, and that will bring a lot of debate.

“It will probably be several months before the party seriously thinks about moving on and looking for the next big thing,” said Liz Mair, an anti-Trump Republican strategist.

What if there is a second Trump presidency? Mair, an even more optimistic partisan, said: “If he wins, I expect we will see even less opposition within the Republican Party to even the craziest things he tries than in his first term.”

Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski said Trump has ushered in a “fundamental shift to where the Republican Party was 10 years ago,” moving it away from “country club Republicans” to “a party that is now inclusive of working people.”

But while Trump has restructured the party, Lewandowski noted that he is also a unique figure. Lewandowski portrayed Trump as the “blue-collar billionaire” who cobbled together a heavily blue-collar coalition that others in the Republican Party had failed to do, arguing: “No other Republican can do that with any kind of authenticity.”

“It is only thanks to him that this movement is so big,” said Lewandowski.

Trump has dominated the GOP so much that if he loses, the party will face a vacuum. He has no clear successor in line.

“Trump is unique, someone can’t just take Trump’s mantle,” said former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

And while Trump will likely remain influential in his party regardless of what happens on Election Day, he could be hampered by legal issues, especially if he loses. He faces four criminal charges, including a trial in New York, where he is awaiting sentencing on 34 counts related to hush money paid to an adult film actress to conceal an affair before the 2016 election.

Some of those cases could disappear if Trump wins — he has promised to fire special counsel Jack Smith, who is prosecuting Trump on allegations stemming from his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and alleged misuse of classified documents.

If he loses, Trump could face more severe criminal sanctions. “He’s going to have to deal with law enforcement,” said Trump biographer Tim O’Brien.

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