According to projections from NBC News and CNN, former President Donald Trump won the election in Iowa.

Iowa, which has traditionally leaned Republican in recent presidential elections, has shown unexpected trends in the 2024 cycle. A recent survey by Ann Selzer for Des Moines Register showed Harris leading former Trump by 3 points. Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020.

Iowa has long played a critical role in shaping presidential elections, and 2024 is no exception. Known for its early primaries, which often set the tone for primary season, Iowa is also strategically important in the general election, particularly in closely contested elections. In the last two elections, the state gave Trump six electoral votes.

Selzer's poll was considered a shock since Trump had led the state throughout the presidential campaign. However, Harris' lead is within the poll's 3-point margin of error, suggesting the race is close.

One of the more surprising trends in the survey data is the shifting support among key demographic groups. Independent voters, a significant bloc in Iowa, are leaning more strongly toward Harris than in previous elections. Women over 65 in particular have increasingly supported Harris, a crucial development for Democrats looking to make gains in traditionally Republican areas. Additionally, the poll suggests a split between rural and urban voters, with Trump maintaining strong support in rural areas while Harris performing better in cities and suburbs.

At the national level, the presidential race remains highly competitive. Election forecaster Nate Silver described the contest as a “pure contest,” with each state crucial to each candidate.

Iowa's voting history in presidential elections has undergone significant changes in recent decades. The state voted for President George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but supported President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Obama's broad appeal, particularly among young voters and urban communities in Iowa, helped him win significant victories by nearly 10 percentage points in 2008.

In 2016, however, the state swung significantly toward Donald Trump, who led Iowa by nearly 10 percentage points. Trump's message resonated with the state's large rural and working-class population, drawn to his promises of economic revitalization and trade policies that benefit American farmers. He maintained that support in 2020, winning the state by 8 points over President Joe Biden.

According to Selzer's poll, it is the economy and inflation that drove Trump voters to vote for him. The economic issues were closely followed by immigration. The top issue for Harris voters is the “future of democracy,” followed by abortion.

Independent voters have always played a crucial role in Iowa elections, often determining the outcome in close contests. With both major political parties focused on outreach in the state, independents are being aggressively courted. Harris' campaign has placed an emphasis on reproductive rights, climate change and access to health care, hoping to mobilize younger and more progressive voters. In contrast, Trump's campaign is leaning on promises of economic prosperity and border security and seeking to bolster his rural base.