In Nate Silver's final prediction for the 2024 election, Vice President Harris took a razor-thin lead over former President Trump. The veteran pollster said the race is “literally closer than a coin toss.”

According to the forecast, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015 percent of the 80,000 simulations conducted, which Silver said is twice as many simulations as he normally runs.

Silver wrote that “the race is literally closer than a coin toss,” adding that experience shows heads win 50.5 percent of the time – more than Harris' 50.015 percent.

“When I say that the odds in this year's presidential race are as close to 50/50 as possible, I'm not exaggerating,” Silver added.

Silver added that the model's polling average was within 1.2 percentage points in six of the seven crucial battleground states, with Arizona the only swing state “with something like a clear lead” for Trump.

Silver also wrote that if he were offered a bet on the election, he would not put money on either candidate because Harris' lead was so small.

Nearly two weeks ago, Silver said his “gut feeling” told him Trump would win, but he cautioned against relying on anyone's gut feeling.

“My gut feeling says Donald Trump. And I suspect that’s true for many concerned Democrats,” Silver wrote in an Oct. 23 New York Times editorial. “But I don’t think you should give any value to anyone’s gut feeling, including mine.”

“Instead, you should come to terms with the fact that a 50:50 forecast actually means 50:50,” he continued. “And you should be open to the possibility that these predictions are wrong, and that could be the case both in the direction of Mr. Trump and in the direction of Ms. Harris.”

The latest poll aggregate from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows Harris and Trump at 48.4 percent support each.

Updated at 9:39 a.m. EST

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