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Could Tonight Deliver a Populist Surprise, Part II? That's the theme of the riff. As we discussed last night, all top pollsters may be missing a number of built-in advantages for former President Donald Trump: a major voter registration shift favoring Republicans in more than thirty states and large Republican turnout in early voting. Both are completely different than 2020.

Here's a quick example from the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 1.1 million advantage in early voting. This year that margin was reduced to just 400,000. Staying in Pennsylvania, party registration favored Democrats by 1.2 million during the Obama years and by 686,000 in 2020. Now, in 2024, that registration margin has fallen to just 281,000.

Furthermore, the GOP essentially keeps its gains. In recent years, 203,000 Democrats switched to the Republican column, but only 97,000 Republicans switched to the Democratic column. Kudos to James Freeman's Wall Street Journal column. So have the pollsters recognized this? I somehow don't think so.

The Democrats' collapse in early voting extends to all swing states. The Republican advantage in registration extends to thirty states across the country. These trends are not only a result of Republicans' better political control of the electoral machine, but they also reflect how much Mr. Trump has expanded his working-class coalition.

This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow's opening commentary to the November 5, 2024 issue of Kudlow.