Tropical Storm Rafael has gained strength in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to reach hurricane strength on Wednesday, carrying the risk of damaging winds and rainfall. But it is expected to weaken as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast, where records show several states have not been hit by a hurricane since the early months of the U.S. Civil War in November.

Tropical storm conditions could develop in parts of the Florida Keys starting Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If Rafael approaches this area at high tide, Dry Tortugas could see a 1- to 3-foot storm surge, which is a wall of water pushed inland by a storm's winds. And the Lower Keys could see a storm surge of 1 to 2 feet, which is a manageable amount. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday that multiple tornadoes were possible over the Keys as well as Florida's southernmost mainland.

Rafael traveled northwest Tuesday morning, bringing heavy rain to Jamaica, Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore said Tuesday on . “Depending on how quickly it can intensify, conditions will develop from (tropical storm) to hurricane over the Cayman Islands this evening.”

The National Hurricane Service (NHS) said Rafael could bring “damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves” as it approaches the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. The storm is expected to reach hurricane status near the Cayman Islands and continue to strengthen before hitting Cuba.

Rafael's threat to Cuba comes just weeks after Hurricane Oscar brought heavy rains to the island, causing a nationwide power outage and leaving at least seven people dead. According to the Associated Press, Cuba faces a long recovery period made more dangerous by the deepening economic crisis.

Meteorologists are also warning that there is a risk of flash floods and mudslides in higher areas of Cuba – and also in Jamaica.

Forecasters say Rafael could also trigger heavy rains in other U.S. Gulf states, although dry air and lower water temperatures are expected to rob the storm of its hurricane intensity.

Some forecasts say coastal Louisiana, including New Orleans and Mississippi, could potentially experience impacts from the storm. Records dating back to 1861 indicate that neither Louisiana, Mississippi nor Texas experienced a hurricane that made landfall in November, according to New Orleans newspaper WDSU.

The news agency notes that a hurricane making landfall this time of year would be unusual overall. During the same period, records indicate that only eight hurricanes made landfall on the Gulf Coast in November.

Hurricane Etna was the last such storm to do this. The 2020 hurricane made landfall in Nicaragua, Cuba, Lower Matecumbe Key and Cedar Key, Florida, WDSU reported.

According to NBC News, Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Rafael will become the 11th hurricane as it strengthens; The Atlantic hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which are considered major.

While the Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, it is typically most active around September 10, according to NBC News. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw 10 named storms from September 24 to November 4, marking “the most on record for that period.”

Meteorologists had expected an unusually active hurricane season due to record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. Rising ocean temperatures are widely attributed to global warming, largely due to human burning of fossil fuels.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has caused widespread destruction in the United States. Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida on October 9, claimed dozens of lives and caused a whopping $50 billion in damage.

Just two weeks earlier, Hurricane Helene's rains destroyed entire towns in western North Carolina, killing hundreds. Before Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina, the deadly storm surge flooded much of Florida, destroying homes and businesses.

It also devastated several other southeastern US states.