SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico – Tropical Storm Rafael chugged toward the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane on its way to Cuba.

The storm was located 105 miles (170 kilometers) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, early Tuesday. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, maximum sustained winds were 60 mph (95 km/h) and moving northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h).

“Rafael is expected to become a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and will strengthen before hitting Cuba,” the center said.

The storm is expected to move near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas as well as the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas.

“The storm is currently in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive to strengthening,” the hurricane center said.

Rafael is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, with officials closing schools and government offices and urging residents to prepare. Jamaica was also closed as a precaution as the storm's external winds swept across the island late Monday.

Rafael was expected to approach Cuba on Wednesday. The Cuban authorities announced on Monday evening that around 37,000 people in the far east of Cuba, in Guantanamo province, had to be evacuated due to bad weather.

The island is still struggling to recover from Hurricane Oscar, which devastated the island about two weeks ago after making landfall in eastern Cuba, killing at least six people. The storm also coincided with a widespread power outage on the island.

Meteorologists warned that Rafael would trigger heavy rains in the western Caribbean, which could lead to flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 7 to 15 centimeters and up to 25 centimeters would be expected locally in Jamaica and parts of Cuba.

Heavy rains were also expected to spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States during the middle to late part of the week. A few tornadoes were also expected over the Keys and southwestern mainland Florida on Wednesday.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would likely be well above average, with 17 to 25 named storms. The forecast called for up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.