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Kari Lake leads Ruben Gallego in several polls


Kari Lake leads Ruben Gallego in several polls

Former television host Kari Lake has narrowed her lead over Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in the race for Senate seats in the swing state of Arizona, according to polls.

Current averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show Gallego maintaining a narrow lead, while Lake has been gaining ground in recent weeks and even taking the lead in some polls.

According to FiveThirtyEight polling averages, Gallego leads Lake by 4.6 points (49.3 percent to 44.7 percent). RealClearPolitics shows a similar spread, with Gallego gaining 4 points (49.4 percent to 45.4 percent).

According to these two poll aggregators, Gallego has been leading Lake on average since April.

Lake Gallego
Kari Lake, left, on July 30, 2024, and Ruben Gallego, right, on October 9, 2024, both in Phoenix, Arizona. Lake is running against Gallego for the open U.S. Senate seat in Arizona.

Ross D. Franklin/ASSOCIATED PRESS

However, recent individual polls have shown some volatility, suggesting an unpredictable electorate as Arizona voters prepare to cast their ballots.

A study by Atlas Intel conducted between November 1 and 2 found that Lake was ahead by 1.7 points (49.1 percent for Lake, 47.4 percent for Gallego). The same polling firm had Lake ahead by 0.7 points (48.6 to 47.9) in a poll conducted on October 30 and 31.

Aside from two other polls last week, one by DataOrbital that had Lake leading by 0.7 percent and one by OneMessage that had the candidates tied, Gallego has led every poll in the state since July.

The latest data is more in line with the survey average New York Times/The Siena College poll, conducted Oct. 25 to Nov. 2 and released Sunday, surveyed 1,025 likely Arizona voters, with 50 percent supporting Gallego and 45 percent supporting Lake, giving Gallego a 5-point lead.

Although Lake is ahead in some recent polls, the betting odds favor Gallego. According to the Polymarket betting exchange, Gallego has a 78 percent chance of winning, while Lake has a 24 percent chance. This reflects the betting community's assessment that Gallego's consistent lead in the polls could lead to a victory on Election Day.

Newsweek has emailed both candidates' campaigns seeking comment.

Lake gained national prominence as a figure in former President Donald Trump's MAGA movement after she resigned as a news anchor to run for governor of Arizona in 2021. She led a campaign focused on securing the U.S.-Mexico border, protecting gun rights, and protesting COVID-19 lockdowns, “cancel culture,” and “woke” school curricula.

She lost the election to Katie Hobbs by just over 17,000 votes, but refused to concede because she believed the election was unfair.

Lake's defeat in 2022 continues to haunt her in her 2024 Senate campaign. She has suffered several legal setbacks this year, including in March when she admitted that she had defamed a fellow Republican by accusing him of a conspiracy to rig the Senate 2022 gubernatorial election and lost its sixth appeal against the results of the same election in June.

In January, it emerged that Lake's Senate campaign sparked discord among Arizona Republicans when the state's party chairman resigned after an audio recording surfaced in which he allegedly offered Lake money in exchange for her opting out of the state for two years Politics stayed away.

Gallego is the representative of a Phoenix-area congressional district, a seat he has held since 2015.

Before entering politics, he served in the U.S. Marines during the invasion of Iraq. He is of Latino descent, was born and raised in Illinois and studied at Harvard University.

He launched his Senate campaign in January 2024 after incumbent Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an independent a month earlier.

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