Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Marist polls

WASHINGTON – Vice President Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin four days before the presidential election. That's according to new polls of the three “blue wall” states released Friday by Marist College that show the Democratic candidate gaining among independent voters.

In Pennsylvania, Harris leads Republican candidate Donald Trump 50-48% among likely voters, Marist found, and leads Trump 51-48% in Michigan and 50-48% in Wisconsin.

The polls — some of the most encouraging polls for Harris in recent days — were conducted Oct. 27-30. Each result is within the polls' margins of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 3.5 percentage points in Michigan and 3.4 percentage points in Wisconsin.

Harris is gaining a boost in the polls as independent voters change direction. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads among independents 55 percent to 40 percent, Marist found, a turnaround from Trump's 4-point lead among independent voters in Pennsylvania in September. Harris leads among independent voters 52-46% in Michigan and 51-46% in Wisconsin.

Harris fared worse among black voters but managed to win among white voters

Reflecting a key trend of the 2024 election, the polls found wide gender gaps, with Harris performing better among women and Trump among men.

In Pennsylvania, Harris leads 53-45% among likely female voters, while Trump leads 51-47% among likely male voters. Harris likely leads Trump 55-44% among Michigan voters and probably 55-43% among Wisconsin voters. Trump is ahead with likely male voters in Michigan 52-46% and likely with male voters in Wisconsin 53-44%.

Despite Harris' poll results, the vice president is performing worse with Black voters compared to President Joe Biden's performance in the 2020 election, Marist found.

Harris leads Trump 84-16% among black voters in Pennsylvania and 75-25% among black voters in Michigan. Biden won the support of 92% of Black voters in 2020. Harris has the support of 63% of non-white voters in Wisconsin, while Biden had the support of 73% in 2020.

Still, Harris is overcoming the gap with black voters by doing better than Biden with white voters. Trump leads Harris 51% to 47% among white voters in Pennsylvania, below the 57% Trump achieved with that group in 2020. In Michigan, Trump leads white voters 51% to 48%, a smaller margin than his fourth results of 55% to 44% years ago. Trump leads white voters in Wisconsin 50-48%, after trailing the state's white voters by 6 points in 2020.

What is the blue wall?

The polls, conducted through a combination of telephone interviews, text message and online interviews, sampled 1,642 Pennsylvania voters, 1,429 Michigan voters and 1,549 Wisconsin voters.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – each represented by President Joe Biden in 2020 – have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one presidential candidate winning all three. Trump handed the three states with the “blue wall” to the Republican column in 2016 on the way to his defeat against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

If Harris carries all three blue wall states in the Nov. 5 election, she would likely secure enough votes to win the presidency, even if she wins the four other battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada loses. This assumes Harris wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, where she is ahead in the polls, and all other states she is heavily favored to win.

For Trump, a victory in one of the “blue wall” states – particularly Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral votes of any battleground with 19 electoral votes – would pave the way for him to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes by winning that victory in combines the Sun Belt states, where he is stronger in polls.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.

Harris fared worse among black voters but managed to win among white voters

What is the blue wall?

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