Trump's odds lead over Harris nearly collapsed last week

Former President Donald Trump's betting lead over Vice President Kamala Harris nearly collapsed in the final full week of the 2024 campaign.

Trump was favored at -188 at British bookmaker Bet 365 a week ago, while his odds were at -138 at the start of the Monday before Election Day. Harris' odds decreased from +150 to +120 at the bookmaker.

The tightest spread in the action, which US bookmakers cannot participate in, came from offshore bookmaker BetOnline, which had Trump at +140 and Harris at -120.

The collapse comes as a speaker's statement at Trump's campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York prompted anti-Puerto Rican statements in communities in swing states, including central Pennsylvania.

Last week, the Des Moines Register — part of the USA TODAY Network — published a poll that showed Harris ahead in Iowa, albeit within the poll's margin of error. The poll caused a stir because the state was considered a safe Trump stronghold.

“It's hard for anyone to say they foresaw this,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, who conducted the poll for The Register. “She has clearly made the leap into a leadership position.”

Presidential Betting Odds Schedule

Betting odds for the presidency, as of November 4th

Bet 365

Donald Trump:-138
Kamala Harris: +120

via Covers.com

Bovada

Donald Trump: -140
Kamala Harris: +120

BetOnline

Donald Trump: -140
Kamala Harris: +120

Oddschecker

Donald Trump:-133
Kamala Harris: +150

Election Day is less than 24 hours away. Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter for breaking news and exclusive analysis.

How accurate were the voting rates in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

The most recent surprise came in 2016, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose.

The other surprise came in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman had odds of defeating Republican Thomas Dewey by eight to one.