Trump and Harris continue to be close in the polls

Just two days before Election Day, polls suggest the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains neck-and-neck.

National polls provide an overview of the country as a whole, and most of the national polls released Sunday suggest there is either a tie between the candidates or that Harris has a narrow lead. As the campaign enters its final hours, both Trump and Harris remain busy: Trump has rallies planned in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris made an “SNL” cameo on Saturday night and has several stops planned in Michigan .

Surprisingly, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa, a state that previously voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.

Here are the latest polls that shed light on where the race stands.

Harris leads Trump in the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll

The survey of 808 likely Iowa voters, which includes both those who have already voted and those who say they definitely plan to vote, was released late Saturday and conducted Oct. 28-31 by Selzer & Co . carried out.

According to the poll, which has a margin of error of ±3.4 points, Harris leads Trump among likely voters in Iowa, 47% to 44%.

This follows a September poll in Iowa that had Trump with a four-point lead over Harris, and a June poll in Iowa that had him with an 18-point lead over President Joe Biden, then the presumptive nominee who was a Democrat.

“No one can say they see this coming,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co, told the Des Moines Register, part of the USA TODAY Network. “She has clearly made the leap into a leadership position.”

According to the latest NBC News poll, Trump and Harris are tied

Nationally, Trump and Harris are tied, both receiving the support of 49% of registered voters in a new poll released Sunday by NBC News.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted from October 30 to November 30. 2 with a margin of error of ± 3.10 points. ~~It shows that both Harris and Trump are at 49% in a head-to-head matchup.~~ Only 2% of voters surveyed in a direct duel said they didn't know who to vote for.

The November poll shows similar results to an NBC News poll from October, which also showed Harris and Trump each at 48%.

In the most recent Emerson poll, Trump and Harris were tied

A national survey of likely voters by Emerson College found that Trump and Harris each have the support of 49% of U.S. voters. The poll also found 1% support a third-party candidate and 1% are undecided just two days before Election Day.

The survey was conducted from October 30th to November 30th. 2 surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of ±3 points.

“Emerson College’s latest poll of the national popular vote, which does not take the Electoral College into account, suggests an incredibly close race,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the poll results. “The gender gap is wide: women favor Harris by 12 points and men support Trump by the same margin.”

In the poll, 50% of voters expect Trump to be the next president, while 49% expect Harris to win. And when it comes to popularity ratings, Harris came out on top: 50% had a positive opinion of Harris, while 48% had a positive opinion of Trump.

According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Harris is ahead of Trump in some swing states

A poll released Sunday by The New York Times and Siena College showed Harris ahead in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump remains ahead in Arizona, and the candidates continue to have tight races in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Trump leads Harris 49-45% in Arizona. The poll showed Harris leading in Georgia with 48%, ahead of Trump with 47%, in North Carolina with 48% to 46% and in Nevada with 49% to 47%.

The candidates received 48% each in Pennsylvania and 47% each in Michigan.

The survey was conducted from October 24th to November 24th. 2 and surveyed 7,879 likely voters in battleground states. The margin of error was ±1.3 points in the contested states and ±3.5 points in each state poll.

ABC News/Ipsos poll: Harris leads Trump by 3 points

An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday showed Harris with 49% support among likely voters, while Trump lagged behind at 46%.

The poll was conducted among a random nationwide sample of 3,140 adults, including likely voters, from October 29 to November 29. 1 The margin of error was ± 2 points for the entire sample and for likely voters and ± 5 points for likely voters in the swing states: Arizona, Georgia. Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate's lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump's performance.

Contributor: Brianne Pfannenstiel, Des Moines Register.