With just days to go until voters head to the polls across the United States, recent polls suggest the presidential contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remains tight.

According to the University of Florida Elections Lab, 66,100,521 early ballots had already been cast in the U.S. as of November 1, including 35,079,332 in-person early ballots and 30,903,354 returned mail-in ballots. 38.4 percent of voters were registered Democrats, 36.1 percent were Republicans and 25.4 percent were not affiliated with any major party.

To win the 2024 presidential election, 270 electoral votes are required. Joe Biden triumphed in 2020 with 306 votes, winning the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin against Donald Trump.

This time the election is focused on seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A number of organizations have created models to predict outcome based on a combination of recent polls, demographic information and other data. Looking at the individual state surveys in these models, Newsweek has broken down three possible scenarios currently being predicted by major forecasters. It should be noted that almost all of the contested state polls are within the margin of error, meaning it is more than possible that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump ends up winning every single one of these states.

Newsweek emailed the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for comment.

Harris 270 (VoteHub)

VoteHub predicts a Harris victory starting November 1, with 270 Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate versus 268 for Trump.

In this scenario, Harris manages to retain the three blue wall states that Biden won in 2020, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and also secures what is likely to be the only electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, by exactly 270 electoral votes received that would be necessary to win the election.

VoteHub data suggests Harris is ahead in the critical swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, although Trump was ahead in North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. In terms of vote share, Harris led with 48.8 percent of the vote compared to 47.1 percent for the Republican candidate.

A VoteHub model shows Harris on track for a narrow victory with 270 Electoral College votes. Race to the White House

VoteHub only included pollsters rated A+ to B- by the Race to the White House website in its analysis. They said: “In our most recent polling average, each pollster is given equal weight. If there are multiple polls from the same pollster, the results are averaged. This 'flat average' is based solely on polls from the last 28 days for state and national polls.” State polls.

Trump 287 (RealClearPolling)

RealClearPolling's Nov. 1 analysis, last updated Oct. 30, showed Trump on track to victory with 287 Electoral College votes compared to 251 for Harris.

In this scenario, Harris retains Michigan and Wisconsin, but Trump edges out Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania to win the election.

In particular, RealClearPolling's model suggests that Harris has recovered significantly in recent weeks. The data shows that on October 17, Trump won with 312 Electoral College votes to 226.

The data used by RealClearPolling includes polls from Rasmussen Reports, which Rasmussen Reports described as “right-wing.” The Washington Post. In March 2024, another major survey analysis website, 538, announced that it would no longer use Rasmussen Reports data in its models.

Trump 297 (Decision Office Headquarters)

An analysis published by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, last updated on October 28, found that after all the votes were allocated, Trump received 297 Electoral College votes to Harris' 241. This number was calculated by adding up the Electoral College votes from each state based on Decision Desk HQ projections.

In this scenario, Harris only holds onto Michigan while Trump edges out Wisconsin as well as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania to win the election.

Overall, Decision Desk HQ gave Trump a 54 percent chance of victory on November 5, compared to 46 percent for Harris.

The model classified Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan as “toss-up” states, although Trump had a slight advantage in all but the last.

After the districts were removed from the model, Decision Desk HQ had Trump with 235 Electoral College votes to Harris' 226.