Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

TOI correspondent from Washington: Iowa, a non-battlefield state name after a Native American tribe that means “sleepy one,” has rocked the city 2024 presidential election. The shocking results of a respected poll show Kamala Harris defeating Donald Trump 47 to 44 – within the margin of error – in an early sign that she is competitive even in the American heartland, which is largely Trump territory.
Trump won Iowa in 2020 and 2016 and was considered so far ahead (at 5+) that neither side bothered to campaign there, as was the case with 42 other states that were at +5 in one or go in another direction, so that only seven states are left in play. But a latest Des Moines Register-Mediacom poll three days before the election shows Harris erasing Trump's 18-point lead (when Biden was his opponent) and storming ahead.
The survey was conducted by Selzer & Co., a company led by a renowned pollster Ann Selzerwho has a good track record of poll accuracy. “No one can say they saw this coming. She has clearly jumped into a leadership position,” Selzer told the local Des Moines Registered newspaper, which conducted the poll with the headline “New Candidate, New Ballgame.”
Iowa only has six electoral votes, but the poll's implications, if any, go far beyond the other Midwestern states where Trump is either winning (Nebraska, Kansas, Ohio, Missouri) or in a close fight (Wisconsin , Michigan). The biggest takeaway from the Selzer poll is that women are voting for Harris in a big way — probably much more so than previous national polls show (+11). In Iowa, independent women support Harris by a 28 percent margin, and older women (65+) support her over Trump by a margin of more than 2 to 1, 63% to 28%.
“This is a breathtaking survey. But Ann Seltzer has as great a record of predicting election results in her state as any pollster.”
Women are driving this recovery. “A sign for the country?” asked David Axelrod, a political consultant and former adviser to Barack Obama, as Democrats cheered the poll.
The sharp rise in female support for Kamala Harris appears to be due not only to Trump's restrictions on women's reproductive rights through the Supreme Court, but also to his vicious attacks on women, often calling them stupid, stupid, and those with low IQs are vilified when challenged.
Some of the trolls and slurs from his followers were lurid. At a rally in North Carolina on Sunday, Trump was going on his usual tirade about Harris not working at McDonald's when someone appeared in the crowd and shouted, “She worked on a corner!”, suggesting that she was a hooker was. “Remember, other people are saying it, not me,” Trump replied.
It was a tacky departure from the grace displayed by John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee, when one of his supporters disparaged Obama, saying he was an Arab and couldn't be trusted, and McCain immediately corrected her said, “No maam, he's a decent family.” Man, a US citizen, and I happen to have political differences with him.
Trump has also offended many women with baseless comments about reproductive rights, including his recent boast: “I consider myself the father of fertilization.”