In Michigan, third-party votes for presidential candidates could play a role

Unless the polls are disastrous, either Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or former Republican President Donald Trump will occupy the White House next year. But in Michigan, votes for the other candidates on the ballot could influence the outcome in a tight race between the two in the critical battleground state.

With six third-party candidates on the presidential ballot, Michigan is surpassed only by Wisconsin as offering the most options among swing states for protest voters dissatisfied with the choices given to them by the two major parties. Is it possible that one of these third-party candidates could impact the Michigan race and help Harris or Trump win?

“Many of the spoiler threats are exaggerated,” said Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University. But this year, he said he sees the potential for third-party votes to have an impact in Michigan's election. “If there is one state where the spoiler effect occurs, it is most likely in Michigan. I think it's probably pretty low in most states unless the votes are extremely close. But Michigan is a bit of an outlier.”

In addition to Harris and Trump, Michigan's presidential election ballot also includes Natural Rights candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Joseph Kishore, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, U.S. taxpayer candidate Randall Terry and independent candidate Cornel West represented. By comparison, Michigan had four third-party candidates in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections.

This year, hundreds of thousands of Arab American and Muslim voters, for example, could support Stein enough to make a difference, Tamas said. Arab American and Muslim voters in Michigan, appalled by Israel's military attacks in Gaza and elsewhere, have tried to use the ballot box to push for a change in U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East. Stein and West were present at a national Arab-American conference in Dearborn earlier this year.

The Uncommitted National Movement, which called on Democrats to vote “uncommitted” in the presidential primary to protest President Joe Biden's Gaza policy, declined to endorse Harris. But the group's leaders said they oppose Trump and see third-party votes as a potential victory for the Republican candidate.

Democrats are concerned about votes from third-party candidates. The Democratic National Committee announced a new advertising campaign in Michigan and other swing states on Tuesday, saying a vote for Stein or West would be the same as a vote for Trump. New digital ads feature Trump's comments from a Philadelphia rally in June praising Stein and West. “He’s one of my favorite candidates, Cornel West,” Trump said. “I like her too, Jill Stein. I like her very much. Do you know why? It takes 100% away from them. He takes 100%,” Trump said. In the same speech, Trump said Kennedy's influence was “probably 50-50,” suggesting that the independent candidate took an equal number of votes away from both the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

The Harris campaign declined to comment and referred the Free Press to the DNC. “A vote for Stein or West is a vote for Trump. The only way to avoid a repeat of 2016 is to vote for Vice President Harris,” DNC senior adviser Mary Beth Cahill said in a statement Tuesday.

Stein defended himself against the attacks. “In a democracy, your vote belongs to no one, candidates have to earn your vote, and the only 'spoilers' are the political elites who are working overtime to deny a meaningful democratic choice to voters hungry for a real choice,” she said statement her campaign emailed on Wednesday. West's campaign did not respond to an email from the Free Press seeking comment.

On the Republican side, Kennedy said he specifically ended his presidential campaign because he didn't want to take votes away from Trump. He launched a legal attempt to remove his name from Michigan's ballot. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected his request on Tuesday.

Asked whether the Trump campaign fears that votes for a third-party candidate could hurt Trump in Michigan, the campaign's national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said via email last Wednesday: “President Trump is building the largest and most diverse with support political movement in history.” from conservatives, independents and even Democrats like RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.”

In the last two presidential elections in Michigan, the Libertarian candidate received the most votes of any other third-party candidate. In fact, the Libertarian candidate received 2.5 times more votes in 2020 and 2016 than all other third-party candidates combined. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen won 60,381 votes in 2020, while Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 172,136 votes in 2016.

But for the votes for third-party candidates to make a difference, the election must take a certain form: close, according to political scientists. And a large number of third-party votes doesn't necessarily mean they have an impact on the final result, because it's not clear whether those third-party voters would have ever voted for a major party candidate in this race or even registered to vote at all.

A close election could result in third-party votes having an impact

The US has “the least successful third party in the rich world,” said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University. “A lot of people who would be third-party voters elsewhere are not here,” he said. Nevertheless, in a tight race, a small number of votes can make the difference, said Grossmann.

Since 1980, votes for third-party and write-in candidates in Michigan have exceeded the winning presidential candidate's margin of victory three times: in 1980, 1992 and 2016.

In 1980, then-Republican U.S. Rep. John B. Anderson of Illinois ran as an independent and won over 275,000 votes in Michigan, where former California Governor Ronald Reagan defeated then-President Jimmy Carter by over 253,000 votes in the state. In 1992, independent candidate Ross Perot spent millions to self-finance his presidential bid, receiving more than 824,000 votes in Michigan. Democrat Bill Clinton defeated incumbent Republican President George HW Bush in Michigan this year by more than 316,000 votes. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by just over 10,000 votes – or 0.23 percentage points. It was the closest victory of any state this year. Johnson received more than 172,000 votes in 2016 and Stein received more than 51,000 votes.

But just because third-party votes exceeded the margin of victory doesn't mean the third-party candidates were spoilsports.

Democrats continue to blame Clinton's defeat in Michigan and other key battlegrounds on the votes of third-party candidates. But the argument that third-party votes cost Clinton the state assumes that those voters would have shown up anyway and that they would have supported Clinton. A detailed analysis of the 2016 election by political scientists refutes the theory that third-party candidates enabled Trump's victory in the Electoral College.

For a third-party candidate to become a spoilsport, it would take a situation like the incredibly close 2000 presidential election in Florida, Tamas said. There, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore with 537 votes – a margin of 0.009 percentage points – and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader won 97,488 votes – 1.6% of the votes cast.

How do third-party candidates poll in Michigan?

A poll conducted in October by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA on behalf of the Free Press shows 3% of voters supporting Stein or Kennedy, and 1% supporting West. The poll surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters. It was conducted October 24-28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Kennedy polled higher over the summer. When Biden was still in the race, a June poll showed Kennedy at 10% and Stein and West at 2% each.

Contact Clara Hendrickson: [email protected] or 313-296-5743. Follow her on X, formerly called Twitter, @clarajanehen.

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A close election could result in third-party votes having an impact

How do third-party candidates poll in Michigan?

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