OOver the past three months, four accounts on a popular gambling site have placed thousands of bets totaling more than $50 million on Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election next week. The bets placed on prediction platform Polymarket appear to have massively skewed the odds on the site in Trump's favor, with the total accounting for about 2 percent of all bets placed on the 2024 election.

The four accounts – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie – were traced to a single French citizen with “extensive trading experience and (a) financial services background,” according to a statement from Polymarket. The betting platform said there was no evidence that the trader intentionally placed the bets to boost Trump's chances, although the incident proved how easy it was for a wealthy person to manipulate the market.

The latest numbers from Polymarket give Trump a 66 percent chance of beating Democratic rival Kamala Harris, who, according to these odds, has just a one in three chance of winning the White House. Meanwhile, the latest national polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows a Trump victory of just 46.7 percent and a Harris victory of 48.1 percent.

Some fear Trump's massively inflated betting odds could be used by his supporters as evidence that the election was stolen, while regulators have warned that gambling sites like Polymarket pose a significant threat to election integrity.

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Many of Trump's supporters are already sharing screenshots of the latest odds on social media as evidence that victory is inevitable. Trump's ally Elon Musk divided

Conservative commentator Joe Kernen, who appears on CNBC's “Squawk Box,” has frequently pointed out the odds on television and shared screenshots of Trump's polymarket odds on social media. Conversely, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg called the betting market odds “polymarket voodoo,” adding that “any analyst who takes it seriously should be ignored.”

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Polymarket, backed by billionaire Trump supporter Peter Thiel, allows people to bet on the outcome of future events using cryptocurrencies. Currently, it only allows users outside the US to bet on the US elections, although the semi-anonymous nature of the cryptocurrency combined with technologies such as virtual private networks (VPNs) allows it to bypass the platform's terms of service.

The rules are also shifting in favor of online gambling sites during elections in the USA. Last month, a federal judge in the US lifted a ban on betting on election results in the country imposed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Online betting markets have already run television ads during Trump rallies, with Kalshi offering Right Side Broadcasting Network viewers $175 for a $100 bet on a victory for the Republican candidate. Popular trading platform Robinhood also began offering election betting this week, opening the market to millions more potential voters.

According to a statement released in May by Rostin Behnam, chairman of the financial regulator, the CFTC claims that election betting “ultimately commodifies and compromises the integrity of the unique American experience of participating in the democratic electoral process.”

Political figures have also warned about the potential dangers posed by online gambling sites ahead of elections. In a letter to regulators last year, U.S. senators claimed that Polymarket and other gambling sites posed a “clear threat to our democracy.”

The letter, co-signed by prominent Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, argued that the “mass commodification” of the democratic process was fundamentally undermining its integrity.

“Introducing financial incentives into the electoral process fundamentally changes the motivations behind every vote, potentially replacing political beliefs with financial calculations,” the letter said.

“For example, billionaires could expand their already outsized influence in politics by making extraordinary bets while supporting a particular candidate or party. There are strong ethical concerns because political insiders who are privy to nonpublic information could use their inside information to profit at the expense of voters.

“Ultimately, these bets could influence the outcome of our elections and undermine the voices of voters. If citizens believe the democratic process is influenced by those with financial interests, it may further exacerbate the voter disenfranchisement and distrust our nation already faces.”

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New research from crypto research firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital has found that Polymarket activity shows signs of market manipulation, with such trading accounting for about a third of all trading in the presidential election. The reports, first published by Fortune, further question the site's veracity.

A spokesperson for Polymarket said this The Independent that such activities are not just limited to Polymarket, but the platform's transparency makes it easier for people to spot them.

“What makes Polymarket unique is that, unlike traditional financial markets, Polymarket makes all transactions on its platform transparent and publicly available, including to researchers,” the spokesperson said. “Polymarket’s Terms of Service expressly prohibit market manipulation. We strive to provide users with the fairest analysis possible, and our transparency allows the market to decide.”

Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan described his creation on X last week as a “reality check” that goes far beyond the US election.

“Hopefully politics is the first step in making the masses aware of the value of market-based forecasts,” he wrote.

“The market determines the price, not the operator. There is no “house” that sets the quotas. It is the invisible hand, not the thumb on the scale… As these markets become more popular, liquid and accessible, we foresee a world where markets guide decision-making and opinions are backed by capital. The downstream effect is an information landscape with less sensationalism and more truth.”