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Profile of swing state North Carolina


Profile of swing state North Carolina

BBC An image of a blue and red toned North Carolina postage stamp on a purple background with white stars and blue and red stripes. The stamp depicts the Wright brothers' airplane and the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse with the inscription BBC

North Carolina, famous for Michael Jordan, Krispy Kreme and the world's first flight in a powered aircraft, is one of seven states that will decide the 2024 US presidential election.

Votes in swing states are difficult to predict and can go Republican or Democrat – that's why you hear so much about them as the campaign draws to a close.

Here you will find everything you need to know.

Population

Electoral College votes

In short

It is the only battleground state that Donald Trump won in 2020. So if the Democrats win, his task will be a lot more difficult.

Margin 2020

What's going on now?

North Carolina is staunchly Republican, but Democrats nearly won it in 2020, thanks in part to the state's Black voters, a group they have heavily targeted again this year.

What do voters say?

North Carolina Democrats are excited to have Harris as their presidential candidate, the first Black and Southeast Asian woman in the role. “Everyone is full of energy and feels like we have a good chance,” says Michael Sutton, 70. William Overton, 85, is frustrated that abortion laws today “are worse than they were in the 1950s.”

Republicans say their top issues are the economy and inflation, followed by immigration. “What we’ve seen over the last four years is terrible,” said Zena Rose, a small business owner in Johnston County.

Expert opinion

For Democrats to win North Carolina, they need high turnout from the state's black voters, says Michael Bitzer, chair of Catawba University's politics department, particularly in the state's more populous metropolitan areas such as Raleigh and Charlotte, as well as in the eastern rural areas of the state State. Another key group Democrats need to see in large numbers are voters under 43 — they make up 42% of all registered voters in North Carolina, according to Bitzer.

For Republicans to win, their party's voters must continue to register and vote in greater numbers than Democrats. Two things could call that into question, says Mr. Bitzer. One factor is whether the 250,000 moderate Republicans who voted for Nikki Haley in the primary support Harris or choose not to vote. The second factor is Hurricane Helene, which destroyed much of the western part of the state in predominantly Republican areas.

What to look out for on election night

  • Interest in the race for governor was high. Republican candidate Mark Robinson denied a CNN report that he made offensive comments on a pornography site
  • The state typically counts votes relatively quickly, but it could be slower due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene
  • Granville County is one of only six in North Carolina that flipped from Obama to Trump – it could be a good night for Harris if she wins it back

Reporting by Brandon Drenon

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