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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election


Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is undecided. Several new polls show Harris leading in the Upper Midwest and Nevada, while Trump leads in the Southeast and Arizona — meaning the race falls to Pennsylvania, which is essentially a tossup.

Important facts

Pennsylvania: It couldn't be closer – the candidates are at 48% in the Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released Wednesday and 49% to 49% in a CBS/YouGov poll, while Trump is at 47% to 46% In a Quinnipiac poll, with Fox News eliminating third parties, Harris leads 49% to 48% (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found that Trump was up 47% to 46% among all registered voters, but Harris was leading 48% to 47% among voters who voted in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan: Harris is ahead 48% to 46% in a Fox News poll (although there is a 49% tie with no third party), and Harris is ahead 51% to 46% and at 48 in the CES poll (2,336 respondents). % to 43% in front. in the CNN/SSRS poll, while Trump leads 49% to 48% (margin of error 3 points) in an Emerson poll released Tuesday. Harris is one point higher in the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Michigan.

north Carolina: Trump leads Harris 49% to 47%, according to Fox News (or 50% to 49% without third parties), and polls released last week by CES, Marist and Emerson College put him 50% to 48% ahead of Harris. The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a lead of 1.1 points.

Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump by 50-47% in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump is ahead by 49% Up 48% in an Emerson poll and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51% to 47% in the CES poll (933 respondents), while Trump leads 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday is ahead by 48.8% to 48.3 points in a Bloomberg poll from October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is up 0.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51% to 47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and is ahead 50% to 49% (margin of error 3.7) in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 and 49 in a Washington Post poll % to 46% -Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48% to 47% (margin of error) in a CNN/SSRS poll this week. 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Georgia: Trump has a 51% to 46% lead over Harris in the CES poll (2,663 respondents), reflecting his lead in most polls, although in a Marist poll they are at 49% (margin of error 3.9), and Trump is ahead in a Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3) at just under 49.9% to 48.4%, while Harris was ahead in a Washington Post poll (margin of error 4.5) at 51% -47%. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.8 points.

Big number

1.4 points. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of the seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

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