Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied. New polls out this week show Harris with a lead in the Great Lakes region and Nevada, while Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona – but the crucial state of Pennsylvania is nearly tied.

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in some swing states.

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Important facts

Pennsylvania: Harris has a narrow lead of 49% to 48% over Trump in a new university-backed Cooperative Election Study poll (3,685 respondents), and the candidates are tied at 48% in a CNN/SSRS poll Wednesday, as the latest polls show a near tie, with Trump leading 49% to 48% (margin of error 3.4) in an Emerson poll from last week, while Bloomberg found Harris leading 50% to 48.2% (margin of error 3) is in the plus. The FiveThirtyEight poll average shows Trump leading Harris by 0.4 points.

Michigan: Harris leads 51% to 46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48% to 43% in the CNN/SSRS poll, while Trump leads 49% to 48% in an Emerson poll released Tuesday (Margin of error 3 points) . Harris is up 0.7 points in Michigan according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris leads Trump 50-47% in the CES poll (1,542 respondents) and 51-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll, Trump leads 49-48% in an Emerson poll (margin of error 3.4 ). and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll (margin of error 2.9). Harris is up 0.3 points on the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51% to 47% in the CES poll (933 respondents), while Trump leads 48% to 47% (margin of error 4.6 points) and Harris in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday is ahead by 48.8% to 48.3 points in a Bloomberg poll from October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris leads by 0.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51% to 47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and is ahead 50% to 49% (margin of error 3.7) in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 and 49 in a Washington Post poll % to 46% -Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris is leading 48% to 47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Georgia: Trump has a 51% to 46% lead over Harris in the CES poll (2,663 respondents), reflecting his lead in most polls, although in a Marist poll they are at 49% (margin of error 3.9), and Trump is in the lead in a Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3) it was a narrower 49.9% to 48.4%, while a Washington Post-Sharp poll (margin of error 4.5) showed Harris with 51% to 47% is in front. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.8 points.

north Carolina: Trump leads Harris 50-48% in the CES poll (2,308 respondents), and Trump is also up 50-48% in the latest Marist and Emerson College polls. The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a lead of 1.1 points.

Big number

1.3 points. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of the seven states (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.