Storm will develop into a severe hurricane before landfall

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Helene reached hurricane status Wednesday and was forecast to grow stronger and more dangerous before making landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast late Thursday as a devastating Category 3 hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center said Helene would rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall, bringing winds of 120 to 125 mph (193 to 200 kph), and warned that “upward adjustments to the forecast intensity” may be necessary as the storm approaches.

The highest chance of landfall late Thursday was somewhere in the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle – possibly in the Big Bend area, the curve of the Florida peninsula around the Gulf of Mexico – AccuWeather forecasters said. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches (20 to 30 centimeters) is expected near where Helene makes landfall, with isolated areas possible with 2 feet (60 centimeters).

Hurricane and tropical storm warnings were in effect for more than 42 million people in Florida, Georgia and Alabama, the National Weather Service said.

Helene could also be Tallahassee's worst storm in history if 100 mph winds hit Tree City USA. Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and hurricane forecaster for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene is an unprecedented storm.

“Helene is on par with any threat Florida has faced in the last decade or in all of hurricane history,” Truchelut said.

A month ago, Jody Griffis was riding out Hurricane Debby at his home on Cedar Island on the Big Bend coast, but as he secured his stilt house with shutters and siding on Wednesday, he told USA TODAY he would obey the evacuation order issued ahead of Helene.

“My gut feeling tells me I have to go out,” he said.

Storm Tracker: See the forecast path of Tropical Storm Helene, which could develop into a hurricane

Developments:

∎ While flights in the U.S. had not yet been significantly impacted early Wednesday, 16% of flights to Cancun, Mexico, were canceled and another 19% were delayed as of 11 a.m., according to online flight tracker FlightAware. Elsewhere, airlines have issued travel waivers that allow customers to rebook flights along the hurricane's path without penalty, but cities, dates and conditions vary widely. Details here.

∎Helene is now the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season. On average, the 5th Atlantic hurricane usually forms on September 28, said hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. A typical season includes a total of 7 hurricanes.

Helene’s explosive forecast one of the most “aggressive” hurricanes in history

Griffis, 57, said he planned to head to his brother's house with his wife on Thursday morning, likely after spending the night fortifying his own home.

“Everything of value I own I'm taking with me,” he said, describing family heirlooms and photo albums. “If this thing goes 135 to 140 miles per hour, I don't know if my house can take it.”

Steve Brown, 72, who lives just feet from the Gulf in Cedar Island, spent the last 24 hours moving patio furniture into his home, which sits on stilts 21 feet above sea level.

As part of a nationwide evacuation, he plans to move with his wife, Cindy, and their cat, Max, to a friend's house in the nearby town of Perry. “People here are busy,” said the retired teacher. “It's not insane. Everyone has been through this before, so they have a plan and they just execute it.”

Helene's center was located about 85 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, early Wednesday, the hurricane center said. The storm brought sustained winds of 80 mph and was moving north-northwest at 10 mph. AccuWeather forecasters predicted Helene could briefly reach Category 4 while still in the Gulf, which would mean maximum sustained winds between 130 and 156 mph.

Late Wednesday evening, tornadoes were possible on the western peninsula of Florida and in southern Alabama, the hurricane center said. The tornado danger will expand to all of Florida and parts of Georgia and South Carolina on Thursday.

Three counties on Florida's Big Bend coast, where storm surge can reach 15 feet (4.5 meters), have issued evacuation orders for all residents and visitors in their jurisdiction. Officials in Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties — home to about 69,000 people — warned residents of the danger posed by the storm and urged them to take the situation seriously.

“Hurricane Helene is forecast to be a catastrophic and life-threatening storm system,” the Taylor County Sheriff's Office said on Facebook. “This system will be unlike anything we have experienced before. A curfew is in effect from sunset to sunrise. I repeat, this is a MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER for everyone.”

Seventeen other counties along the state's west coast, from the Panhandle to south of Sarasota, have announced mandatory or voluntary evacuations, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management. Across the state, authorities announced the closure of government offices and facilities, as well as public schools and several major universities.

Rick Minor, a county commissioner in Leon County, which includes Tallahassee, urged residents to take the approaching storm seriously.

In an email to his constituents Tuesday evening, Minor said he had been informed by Leon County emergency management officials who stated that if the storm continues on its current path, Leon County will be hit directly.

“On Thursday we will face sustained winds of 120-177 km/h for about six hours, resulting in thousands of downed trees, over a hundred blocked roads, hundreds of damaged buildings and power outages lasting many, many days,” he said. “But we must not panic – fortunately we all have enough time to plan carefully and prepare.”

According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Helene could render some areas “uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

In addition, large-scale power and communication outages are expected for a longer period of time.

For residents of Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties, National Weather Service meteorologists warned hours after emergency management authorities ordered the evacuation of all residents: “If this forecast comes true, this is a nightmarish storm for Apalachee Bay. Please, please, please take all evacuation orders seriously.”

A hurricane warning was in effect for Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico, including Cozume. Additionally, a tropical storm warning was in effect for Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, the U.S. hurricane center said. The center of Helene was forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, the hurricane center said. Helene is expected to bring rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals of about 12 inches, bringing a “risk of significant flooding,” according to the hurricane center.

− Gabe Hauri

In addition to strong winds and heavy rainfall, another deadly threat to Florida's west coast is a major concern: storm surge.

On the open ocean, hurricane winds push water toward the center of the storm, and instead of piling up, the water spirals downward and outward.

As the water is pushed downward, some is pushed out to sea and some is pushed toward the shore. As the storm approaches land and shallow waters, the seabed blocks the outflowing water, causing the sea to rush onto the land.

Meteorologists predict that Helene will hit Florida's Big Bend coast with a tidal surge up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) high, while other coastal areas like Tampa Bay are expecting up to 8 feet (2.4 meters) of water. The storm is expected to quickly strengthen into a major hurricane as it sweeps across the warm waters of the Gulf.

Factors that make coastal communities along the Gulf of Mexico more vulnerable to water buildup include continental shelves that extend more than 100 miles from the coast. On the Atlantic coast, narrower shelves with steep slopes cause less flooding.

– Javier Zarracina, Ramon Padilla, Stephen J. Beard, Dinah Voyles Pulver

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said Floridians should prepare for a possible major hurricane after expanding the state of emergency to 61 counties.

“Now you have time, so take advantage of this time,” DeSantis said. “Review your plan and make sure you implement your hurricane preparedness plan.”

“Don't get attached to those cones. You could be outside the cone and still have a big impact.”

Helene, who is expected to strengthen rapidly, triggers hurricane warning for Florida's Gulf Coast

US oil producers immediately evacuated their employees from oil production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday as the second hurricane in two weeks is expected to devastate the offshore oil fields.

Oil companies BP, Chevron and Shell have begun evacuating their offshore employees, and some have partially suspended production. Just two weeks ago, Hurricane Francine swept across the Gulf of Mexico, peaking at Category 2 with 100 mph winds when it made landfall in Louisiana.

The storm is forecast to develop into a major Category 3 hurricane before approaching Florida's Gulf Coast on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said.

According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, eight major hurricanes have hit Florida since 2000: Charley and Jeanne in 2004, Dennis and Wilma in 2005, Irma in 2017, Michael in 2018, Ian in 2022 and Idalia in 2023.

Contributors: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY; William L. Hatfield, Democrat of Tallahassee; Steve Patterson, Jacksonville Florida Times-Union; Kim Luciani USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida; Reuters

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