Trump's polymarket ratings are over 65% - the highest since Harris entered the race

Topline

Betting odds on former President Donald Trump winning next month's election have risen to their highest level since President Joe Biden gave way to Vice President Kamala Harris in July, although the increasingly popular election betting platform Polymarket is reportedly the source of the massive bets examines what's driving the election The odds are shifting amid scrutiny of eight-figure bets on Trump.

Donald Trump dances during a rally in Florida in July.

AFP via Getty Images

Important facts

The crypto-based Polymarket gives Trump a 66% chance of defeating Harris, the first time his chances have risen above 65% since July 21, the day Biden dropped his re-election bid.

Competitor sites that also take bets on the election outcome are heavily in Trump's favor, although less so than Polymarket, with Kalshi and PredictIt pricing in around 60% and 57% market odds for Trump, respectively.

This is the latest trend in betting markets towards Trump, as Kalshi Harris favored as recently as October 9th, PredictIt as recently as October 8th and Polymarket as recently as October 4th.

tangent

The Trump trend comes as Polymarket investigates the source of recent bets that contributed to the trend and whether they came from U.S. companies, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. Unlike Kalshi and PredictIt, Polymarket is an offshore betting company, making it illegal for individuals in the US to bet on election results on the blockchain-based site. Bloomberg noted that the $43 million bet on Trump and other winning Republican election scenarios in four Polymarket accounts is not domestic, according to an anonymous source confirming a Reuters report on Friday. Blockchain analyst Miguel Morel told the Wall Street Journal last week that there is “strong reason to believe” that the four productive accounts are “the same entity.”

Big number

$2.25 billion. This is how much trading volume Polymarket handled in its presidential election results market.

Important background

Polymarket and election betting markets as a whole have become a major topic of conversation this election season, with people like Elon Musk, the world's richest man and a major Trump donor, calling the site “more accurate than polls because it involves real money.” “ denote line.” Yet popular poll-based forecasting models like Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight give Harris and Trump each a 50% chance of winning the election. It's also important to note that Polymarket odds still suggest that Harris wins about every third simulated election, so it's more accurate to imagine the odds, for example, as the probability of victory for a football team that has a stronger record than its opponent – and in sports, outsiders often have the upper hand. What's also notable is that Trump won Hillary Clinton in 2016, even though the odds of winning implied by the betting market were around 17%.