Natural gas prices could rise 11% this winter compared to last year, while electricity prices could fall about 2%, the state Public Service Commission estimated.

According to a commission estimate released last week, customers using 700 thermal baths of natural gas are expected to pay $202 per month during the November-March heating season, down 11% over the same period in 2023-2024.

New York electric customers who use 600 kilowatt hours per month will pay $58 per month, a 2% decrease.

“We are closely monitoring New York State utilities to ensure they have sufficient electricity and natural gas sources and supplies to meet expected customer demand this winter,” PSC Commissioner Rory Christian said in a prepared statement to The Times-Union.

National Grid, which supplies gas and electricity to much of the state, forecasts that electricity prices will fall less this winter than the PSC estimated, by 0.2%, or $1 per month, the newspaper reported . The utility, which also provides gas service in Brooklyn, Staten Island and most of Queens, expects gas prices to rise by about $5 per month.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter outlook last week, calling for slightly warmer than normal temperatures and above-average precipitation for the Northeast from December to February.

National Grid spokesman Patrick Stella said the company's bills fell more than 20% last year compared to the 2022-2023 winter heating season. That typical decline of about $160, or $32 per month, was due in part to a warmer-than-average season last year.

However, it is seeking a 17% rate increase that, if approved, could increase residential gas and electric bills by $37 a month later next year. Central Hudson Gas & Electric, which serves much of the Hudson Valley, is also seeking commission approval for a rate increase.