Helene is expected to reach Big Bend, Florida, with wind speeds of 185 km/h

Helene, which strengthened into a tropical storm on Tuesday, is forecast to quickly strengthen into a powerful and massive Category 3 hurricane before it is expected to barrel into the Big Bend on Thursday evening, bringing with it “potentially catastrophic” winds and storm surge.

At 5 p.m., an alert rocked the phones of North Florida residents as meteorologists issued hurricane warnings for Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Leon, Madison, Taylor and Wakulla counties.

A storm surge warning was also issued for the coast of Apalachee Bay, which could result in flooding of up to 4.5 meters.

The National Hurricane Center's narrowing cone of uncertainty continued to indicate landfall locations between Panama City and Cedar Key. The centerline that forecasters warn not to focus on remained over Tallahassee in the 5 p.m. forecast.

Helene was forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning and a major hurricane with winds in excess of 110 mph (177 km/h) by Thursday morning.

Israel Gonzalez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, told the Tallahassee Democrat that Helene is expected to maintain hurricane strength “until landfall.”

“There is a very, very high confidence in the north-northwest direction, which would take its core somewhere along the coast of Apalachee Bay,” said Israel Gonzalez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “Given the current forecasts, this is a pretty significant situation that appears to be developing for this part of the Big Bend.”

And while the timing may change, Helene could make landfall Thursday evening or even early Friday. Tropical storm-force winds could arrive as early as Thursday morning, Gonzalez said.

The Hurricane Center predicted a peak intensity of 185 km/h, a Category 3 storm. This strength is enough to overturn mobile homes and cause structural damage to even sturdy buildings.

“Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected near the final landfall location and inland along the route,” the weather service said. “Widespread power outages, damage to critical infrastructure, numerous road blockages and building damage are all possible.”

The city of Tallahassee, bracing for possible severe damage to its power grid, urged its residents to make final preparations.

“Expected impacts in our area include severe storm damage and flooding,” the city said in an email update.

Mutual aid teams are already on their way to Florida's capital from Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Oklahoma.

“We're a Tree City USA — that's one of the things we're known for, and we're a beautiful community,” Mayor John Dailey said in an interview with Accuweather. “But as you know, strong storms and trees don't mix. We expect significant damage if a Category 2 or higher storm comes directly to Tallahassee. We'll have to wait and see what Mother Nature brings.”

The weather service said Helene could bring life-threatening storm surge to the Apalachee Bay shoreline, with a possible height of 10 to 15 feet between the Ochlockonee and Suwannee rivers and 6 to 10 feet from the Ochlockonee River west to Indian Pass in Gulf County.

According to Gonzalez, Helene is expected to reach a massive size, meaning the impacts will be felt far from the center.

“It also has the potential to amplify storm surge in an already incredibly vulnerable storm surge area like Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast,” he said. “So that's going to be a big problem as well.”

Helene could also bring rainfall of 7.5 to 15 cm over large areas, with isolated rainfall of 25 cm possible.

As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, Helene had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and its forward motion is expected to increase speed as it moves through the Gulf.

“Right now, you have time, so take advantage of that time,” DeSantis said Tuesday morning from the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee. “Check … and make sure you're implementing your hurricane preparedness plan.”

“This could be a really, really severe storm.”

Due to the threat of Hurricane Helene, a cascade of closures began. Tallahassee State College, Florida A&M University and Florida State University will all remain closed Wednesday through Friday. Leon County Schools followed suit with a half-day on Wednesday and then full closure for the rest of the week as school campuses become shelters.

The storm also triggered a series of evacuation orders in the Big Bend on Tuesday. Franklin County issued a mandatory evacuation for all barrier islands (St. George Island, Dog Island, Bald Point and Alligator Point), low-lying and flood-prone areas, particularly along the coast and rivers, and for mobile homes and RV parks.

Meanwhile, statewide evacuations have been ordered in Franklin and Wakulla counties. Wakulla County Sheriff Jared Miller warned that a storm surge was expected that would be “unsurvivable.”

“This system will be unlike anything we have experienced before,” the Taylor County Sheriff's Office wrote in an alert on Facebook. “The curfew will be in effect from sunset to sunrise. I repeat, this is a MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER for everyone.”

Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or 850-599-2180.

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