Updates from the path of the storm

A storm expected to become a Category 3 hurricane, Helene, has its sights set on the area that has now become Florida's Hurricane Alley.

The tropical cyclone's track has become familiar to residents of the Panhandle and Big Bend. In August, Category 1 Hurricane Debby made landfall near Taylor and Dixie counties in eastern Big Bend. Its 7 a.m. landfall was just 45 minutes and 10 miles (16 kilometers) from where and when Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Category 3 in late August 2023. The recent storm and its timing have also been compared to Category 5 Hurricane Michael.

Hurricane warnings were issued for northern Florida and the peninsula on Tuesday morning, a day after Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency, prompting some school districts to announce plans for days-long closures. Helene is expected to make landfall between Destin and Tampa on Thursday evening.

Here are the latest updates from the storm’s path:

A hurricane warning is in effect at Big Bend as a still-disorganized tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday and hit Florida's Gulf Coast.

The hurricane warning is in effect for Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Lafayette, Liberty, Leon, Madison, Taylor and Wakulla. The warning means that hurricane strength may occur within the next 48 hours.

According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was in the northwestern Caribbean at 8 a.m. and was moving northwest at 9 p.m.

The system is expected to rapidly intensify from a tropical depression into a tropical storm and hurricane by Wednesday. The Hurricane Center said it will continue to strengthen on Thursday before making landfall.

The Hurricane Center's latest forecast was not much different from Monday evening's.

The cone of uncertainty, which has shifted slightly eastward, still shows the hurricane making landfall somewhere between Panama City and Tampa Bay. The centerline of the cone, which forecasters are not supposed to pay attention to, is just east of the Tallahassee area.

“There will be these little fluctuations in the east and the west,” said David Reese, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee. “But this far out they're more like noise. The track might have shifted 20 or 30 miles to the east. In three days, that's almost nothing in the world of weather.”

Reese said the biggest change in the forecast is a slowing of the storm's forward motion, which could cause the storm to reach the Big Bend coast later than previously thought.

“Now it looks more like it could be a Thursday afternoon to Thursday evening event rather than a Thursday morning to Thursday afternoon event,” Reese said.

Contact Jeff Burlew at [email protected] or 850-599-2180.

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