One summer night in Ontario, a Canadian Sikh activist received a panicked call from his wife: the police had come to the family home and warned them that his life was in danger.

Two weeks later and thousands of miles away, a gunman in British Columbia province filmed himself firing a volley of bullets into the home of a popular Indo-Canadian singer while two vehicles burned in the driveway.

Both incidents – along with a series of arsons, extortion plots, drive-by shootings and at least two murders – are now seen as part of a widespread and violent intimidation campaign across Canada orchestrated by the Indian government.

Last September, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated that there were “credible allegations” that may link Indian officials to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and Sikh activist who was shot dead in British Columbia.

Until recently, the scope and depth of these allegations were unclear. However, this week Canadian police made explosive allegations that Indian diplomats worked with a criminal network led by a notorious jailed gangster to target Sikh dissidents in the country.

India dismissed the allegations as “strange” and “ridiculous”.

But Canadian officials point to a series of cases in recent years that they suspect are part of a broader India-sanctioned campaign of intimidation, coercion and killing.

In September 2023, just two days after Trudeau's first suggestion of a connection with the Indian government, a fugitive Indian gangster named Sukhdool Singh Gill was killed in a hail of gunfire at a home in Winnipeg.

Gill, a member of the Bambiha gang, was wanted in India on charges of extortion, attempt to murder and murder. But Indian officials also said he was also linked to the separatist Khalistan movement, which seeks to establish a Sikh homeland in Punjab.

Inderjeet Brar, who lived nearby, said he and his wife heard nearly a dozen gunshots that morning and footage from a surveillance camera looking out into his backyard captured three men fleeing Gill's home.

A year later, police on Vancouver Island were called to the home of AP Dhillon, a well-known singer and producer who was born in Punjab and raised in Canada. The building was riddled with gunfire and two vehicles were charred ruins.

Footage of the attack – apparently filmed by one of the attackers – was later posted online and widely shared in India. British Columbia's public safety minister called the attack “absolutely outrageous.”

Both attacks were claimed by members of a notorious gang owned by India's most feared crime boss, Lawrence Bishnoi, whose network has been linked to some of the country's most high-profile crimes – even though Bishnoi has been jailed since 2014.

Canadian police say Narendra Modi's government has deployed organized crime syndicates such as the Bishnoi gang as part of its strategy to pursue opponents and rivals.

“There may be overlapping motivations for targeting certain people or groups,” said Harjeet Singh Grewal, assistant professor of Sikh studies at the University of Calgary. “And I think that's what we're seeing right now: overlapping interests of both gangs – who may want to settle scores and gain 'economic advantage' – and (the Indian government) targeting activists.”

In the case of Dhillon, whose fame spans multiple countries, the recent decision to feature Bollywood star Salman Khan in a music video has apparently angered Bishnoi, who has vowed to kill the actor over a long-standing feud.

Grewal says Dhillon also supported Punjabi farmers during their months-long protest in 2021, with Indian media suggesting his song “Farmer” spread “pro-Khalistan” messages that angered the Modi government.

“There is a deep tradition in Punjabi music and lyrics that speaks to those in power on the issue of disenfranchisement,” Grewal said. “Some of these artists (in India) who spread these messages are now dead – and their deaths are linked to crime syndicates.”

A 2022 Canadian Intelligence Service report flagged growing concerns about organized crime, warning gangs with established operations posed a “significant” public safety and societal threat.

“Their structure and membership is becoming increasingly fluid, often leading to opportunistic criminal relationships with national and international networks and partners,” the report said.

Trudeau made an explicit connection between Bishnoi and the Indian government during his testimony before a commission investigating foreign interference this week.

But for those who live near the violence, the links between the Indian government and organized crime come as no surprise.

“I think there is a way Modi is helping the Bishnoi gang and the Bishnoi gang is helping Modi,” Brar said. “If Bishnoi is giving interviews and overseeing his gang from a prison cell, that means the government is probably involved in some way. How else could he do this?”

Brar handed over his video footage to police but now fears his family could face allegations when they visit India.

“We're just trying to get on with our lives, and yet we worry whether we too will have to pay a price if we speak out,” he said.

India has long accused the Canadian government of being soft on supporters of the Khalistan movement, which is banned in India but is more prevalent in the Canadian diaspora. New Delhi argues that Canada has failed for decades to confront alleged Sikh militants and has failed to extradite gang members for prosecution at home.

But experts say India's rapid rise from developing country to global superpower also comes with a growing sense that it can operate with relative impunity – both at home and beyond its borders.

Earlier this year, India's increasingly combative prime minister made extraordinary public boasts about his ability to exact retaliation for dissent, saying, “Today even India's enemies know: This is Modi, this is the new India.” This New India is coming to your house to kill you.”

In the case of the sting operation in Canada, agents from the Indian High Commission in Ottawa and consulates in Vancouver and Toronto are said to have used a mix of diplomatic pressure and coercion to force Indians living in Canada to spy on the Sikh community.

Canadian officials have long been aware of India's efforts to threaten and coerce diaspora populations. And with Delhi's growing frustration over Ottawa's refusal to act against pro-Khalistan groups, officials suspected that vocal figures like Nijjar were targets of intimidation.

“People in the Sikh community who have experienced violence and intimidation in Punjab are aware of these patterns and can quickly read and understand them,” Grewal said. “Perhaps faster than our police and secret service employees.”

This week, Trudeau said his government had acted “to disrupt the chain of operations that extends from Indian diplomats here in Canada to criminal organizations to direct violent impacts on Canadians across the country.”

Canadian police have arrested at least eight people in connection with murder cases, including three believed to have killed Nijjar and nearly two dozen in connection with extortion investigations.

On Friday, Mélanie Joly, Canada's foreign minister, warned that the country “will not stand by as agents of any country are linked to efforts to threaten, harass or even kill Canadians.”

RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme said police uncovered “well over a dozen credible and imminent threats to life,” prompting police to issue “duty alert” notices, including to the brother-in-law of the New Democrat party leader, Jagmeet Singh.

The Guardian spoke to four people who received such warnings. They all describe secretive police acting on possible assassination attempts based on “credible” evidence.

Inderjeet Singh Gosal, a close friend of Nijjar, received a panicked call from his wife during his trip: the police were at their house and told him that his life was in danger.

Gosal, who led efforts to hold a global, non-binding referendum as part of efforts to create the Sikh homeland of Khalistan after his “brother” Nijjar was killed last year, says there is little doubt India is behind the threats .

“When I took on this role and overcame this activism, I knew there would be a moment when they would come after me,” he said. “It will never stop. But that's what I signed up for. I’m not afraid of death at all.”

Months earlier, one of Gosal's properties was hit by a bullet, which he took as a warning sign.

When U.S. prosecutors announced Thursday that they had charged a former Indian intelligence officer with coordinating a foiled contract killing against a prominent Sikh activist in New York, the unsealed indictment showed in black and white the extent to which Indian officials were allegedly involved in the plan .

“But for the Sikhs here, we know what India is capable of: we have seen it for years,” Gosal said. “We have no illusions. We know they have enormous resources and no mercy.”