An exciting Conference USA contest awaits us tonight as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers travel to Huntsville, Texas to take on Sam Houston.

My predictions for the Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston game are that the Hilltoppers' conference title hopes will once again fall as these college football picks ahead of kickoff on Wednesday, October 16 at 7: 00 p.m. ET will be on the side of the short home favorite.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston prediction and best bet

My best choice
Sam Houston Moneyline (-130 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

A more ruthless person would target Sam Houston at -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings), but in college football -1 and -2 are increasingly common numbers with some gambling significance. Coaches are more attuned to analysis, like two when a 14-point deficit is erased by a touchdown. And let's be honest: Mistakes happen in lower-tier FBS football on a Wednesday night. Such a mistake could result in a disjointed score of 28-27.

This moneyline avoids that worry.

But as for the broader point of support for the Bearkats, consider the reality that Western Kentucky is somewhat overvalued due to UTEP's collapse last Thursday. Of the Hilltoppers' 44 points, 17 came from short fields. While Western Kentucky deserves a lot of credit for creating these opportunities, they are still not inherently replicable.

Look at current SP+ ratingsUTEP has the No. 132 offense in the country. Note that there are 134 teams at the FBS level, hence the name Covers College Football Podcast: “College Football 134.” Ranking No. 132 is, in a word, bad.

Sam Houston isn't much better, but at No. 95 the Bearkats hint at slight competence. They won't give the Hilltoppers as many chances.

Sam Houston should dictate the game's moment-to-moment play and be better on both sides of the ball in both offensive and defensive success rates, as well as late downs. In fact, in the latter statistic, the Bearkats rank third and fourth in the top third in the country in both offensive and defensive success rates.

Those who support Western Kentucky here do so almost entirely because of their reliance on big players, but the Hilltoppers aren't producing them at the rate assumed based on their style of play. 71st in dropback success rate, but 79th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, pro cfb graphics at collegefootballinsiders.comquickly means Western Kentucky will find explosive plays less often than the average team, which will be costly against a defense built to disrupt a moment-to-moment passing game.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston, Match Game Parlay (SGP)

Sam Houston Moneyline

Under 55.5

Jay Ducker any time during a touchdown

The Under 55.5 assumption absolutely correlates with Sam Houston's money line. If Western Kentucky is unable to make explosive plays, its offense should stall. That should push us towards that under.

Consideration was given to adopting a Western Kentucky team total of under 24.5 instead, but that disproportionately reduced the payout of this parlay in the same game.

Bearkats running back Jay Ducker's addition of a touchdown is based entirely on his five scores in the last three games, highlighted by three scores in arguably Sam Houston's biggest game of the season so far two weeks ago against Texas State. If this is what is required of Ducker when the moment matters, then something similar can be expected in a game that could make the Bearkats a true Conference USA contender.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston odds

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston live odds

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston opening odds

• Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston spread: Sam Houston -2.5
• Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Moneyline: Western Kentucky +125, Sam Houston -150
• Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston Over/Under: 55.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston distribution and over/under analysis

• The first legitimate lines of the week began with Sam Houston as a 2-point favorite, a number that quickly climbed to -2.5 and flirted with -3 on Sunday and Monday before settling at -2.5 on Tuesday afternoon.
• Both Western Kentucky and Sam Houston are 5-1 against the spread this season, with each of their ATS losses coming against a Power Four opponent.
• The total opened at 54.5 on Sunday and quickly rose to 55 on most books, with some opening at 55.5. On Tuesday, it rose to 56 in most cases.

What you need to know about the Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston betting trend.

Sam Houston is 9-1 against the team in its last nine games, including a 28-23 loss at Western Kentucky last November when the Bearkats were 10-point underdogs. Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston.

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