But prediction markets tell a different story. PredictIt shows that Trump's campaign is in the lead as the winner of the 2024 presidential election. Plus, the GOP wins the presidency and has a lead in the Electoral College. As of Monday afternoon, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction marketplace, also shows that Trump has a better chance of winning the election on November 5th.

Although prediction markets have been around for some time, they have become increasingly popular – especially during political events. These betting sites allow traders to buy and sell stocks depending on the outcome of a particular event, such as whether Trump is impeached or Biden drops out of the presidential race.

Traders then buy stocks depending on which outcome they believe is more likely. Stock prices or “quotas” rise and fall depending on demand. If the event occurs as the trader predicted, the contract or “bet” rises to $1 and is paid out – or falls to $0 if it does not.

Prediction markets can be a more sophisticated and accurate way to predict political events, said Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University AssetsThis is Shawn Tully. Miller is known for his accurate predictions during the 2020 election and much of his methodology is based on studying prediction markets.

“Political betting sites are the best at predicting the wisdom of the crowd,” he said Assets.

While surveys provide insight into how people have reacted in the recent past, the odds on sites like PredictIt and Polymarket show sentiment in real time and are better suited to mapping the future, according to Miller. Additionally, polls do not show who will win the Electoral College, while traders in prediction markets can bet on the outcome.

Comparison between surveys and prediction markets

Three national polls released Sunday show Harris' lead shrinking.

Last month, an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters showed Harris with a six-point lead over Trump. But that gap has narrowed to 50% support for Harris and 48% for Trump. A CBS/YouGov poll shows Harris up 51% to 48%, compared to a four-point lead last month. And the NBC poll of registered voters shows Harris and Trump tied at 48% each.

“As summer turned into fall, there was no sign of momentum for Kamala Harris,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, told NBC. “The race is a dead heat.”

Meanwhile, Polymarket shows that Trump has a 54% chance of winning the presidential election, while Harris trails with just a 45.3% chance.

PredictIt's markets are a little closer. For the market titled “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?” the “yes” result for Trump is currently at $0.54 and the “yes” result for Harris is at $0.50 .

“If you need a single best predictor and source of information to know what's going on in the election, it's the prediction market,” Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, told CNN. “Any information you have, like a survey or an aggregator, news or an expert's opinion, all of that is combined into the markets of participants who have an incentive to get it right and make money from it.” “

But if prediction markets are as accurate as some experts say, why should there be such a discrepancy with the survey results? “It depends on what everyone is measuring,” said Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at public affairs consulting firm Think Big Assets.

“Polls show us how voters are feeling right now, while prediction markets try to predict what will happen in the future,” he said. “Prediction markets respond more quickly to new information, such as economic changes or debate results, while polls take time to update.”

But prediction markets aren't perfect, Waite said, explaining that they can be manipulated by someone with a lot of money who wants to influence perception and that they aren't always accessible to everyone.

Still, surveys have their own problems, including sampling bias, leading questions, and nonresponse, which can also lead to inaccuracy. This is why using both polls and prediction markets can – at least for now – help us understand future political events.

“While prediction markets are gaining traction, they will not replace traditional surveys any time soon,” Waite said. “They offer a complementary perspective. Polls help us understand how different segments of voters feel about candidates or issues, while prediction markets can provide a dynamic view of how the general public thinks things will turn out. Together they provide a more comprehensive picture of the political landscape.”