Snow lovers in New Jersey and many other eastern states may be disappointed when they see AccuWeather's forecast for the 2024-2025 winter season.

AccuWeather is forecasting warmer-than-average temperatures and less snow than normal for the Garden State as well as many major cities and metropolitan areas in the eastern United States, including New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston.

For snow enthusiasts, the winter forecast looks brighter across much of inland New England and other parts of the far northern United States

AccuWeather forecasters say warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and North Pacific, a weak La Niña weather pattern and a narrow polar vortex are three major factors contributing to the weather outlook this winter.

“Gulf water temperatures are expected to remain above historical averages, which may lead to mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.,” AccuWeather noted in its 2024-2025 winter forecast released Monday morning.

Additionally, AccuWeather said, “Higher-than-average water temperatures in the North Pacific could temporarily alter the storm track along the West Coast during the winter, impacting the entire U.S.”

The La Niña weather pattern, which occurs when sea surface temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific remain cooler than average for extended periods of time, “can significantly impact weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms,” ​​AccuWeather noted.

Because the La Niña pattern is expected to be weak through most of the winter season, said Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, “it may allow other signals to drive the pattern, leading to more variability through the winter.”

Those other signals include very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the status of the polar vortex, Pastelok said in AccuWeather's winter outlook.

Pastelok said the polar vortex is expected to remain strong and dense – with very cold air circulating near the North Pole and not dipping too far south through much of the winter. According to AccuWeather, this factor could also play a large role in limiting the development of severe snowstorms in the eastern United States this winter.